181 Davis Ln · Raven, VA 24639

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 437 Days on market

Built 2001 0.36 ac lot Est $139k · 14% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide constructed in 2001. Roof has been replaced with a metal roof and heat pump has been updated with a larger model. Home has a large covered and open covered porch on the front , accessible by a handicap ramp and also steps with a gated entrance. The back has a covered porch just outside the kitchen area. Large kitchen area with dining area. Newer wood/ laminated flooring in kitchen and dining. Laundry room is in an enclosed area off the kitchen. Home boast a detached garage for the mechanic or some one that likes to have a work shop. Home is NOT located in a flood plain, per Fema map. Large . 36 acre, see plat and deed for measurements. Acreage and some other information was taken from CRS. Buyer or buyer broker to verify all information and internet options available.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Detached garage
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NOT LOCATED IN FLOOD PLAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($787/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#524 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tazewell County Public School District (town): math 67% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #21 of 131 in VA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tazewell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 437 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $98,917 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 437 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,996
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Davis Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	24mo	$133,900	$99	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,356
• Equity at exit: $23,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $495
• Equity at exit: $19,481

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24639

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $473/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $99	+0% $66	+5% $32	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $27	+0% $66	+5% $105	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $96	base $66	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 437 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 436 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 435 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 434 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 433 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 431 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 430 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 427 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 426 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 425 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 421 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 419 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 418 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 417 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $119,500 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide constructed in 2001. Roof has been replaced with a metal roof and heat pump has been updated with a larger model. Home has a large covered and open covered porch on the front , accessible by a handicap ramp and also steps with a gated entrance. The back has a covered porch just outside the kitchen area. Large kitchen area with dining area. Newer wood/ laminated flooring in kitchen and dining. Laundry room is in an enclosed area off the kitchen. Home boast a detached garage for the mechanic or some one that likes to have a work shop. Home is NOT located in a flood plain, per Fema map. Large . 36 acre, see plat and deed for measurements. Acreage and some other information was taken from CRS. Buyer or buyer broker to verify all information and internet options available.

17. 2025-04-09
    listed $129,500 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide constructed in 2001. Roof has been replaced with a metal roof and heat pump has been updated with a larger model. Home has a large covered and open covered porch on the front , accessible by a handicap ramp and also steps with a gated entrance. The back has a covered porch just outside the kitchen area. Large kitchen area with dining area. Newer wood/ laminated flooring in kitchen and dining. Laundry room is in an enclosed area off the kitchen. Home boast a detached garage for the mechanic or some one that likes to have a work shop. Home is NOT located in a flood plain, per Fema map. Large . 36 acre, see plat and deed for measurements. Acreage and some other information was taken from CRS. Buyer or buyer broker to verify all information and internet options available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 107.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$473
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$1,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tazewell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103810
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,003
• Composite: 60.16/100
• National rank: #865
• State rank: #21 of 131 in VA

Livability — Raven

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #24097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raven, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Tazewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,275 people
• By 2030: 35,719 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 30,875 · -19.3%
• By 2050: 26,798 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 19,286 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 13,631 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Tazewell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.2 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Current HPI: 118.9287
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $119,500 SWVAR
• 2025-04-09 Listed $129,500 SWVAR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $473 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.