1701 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$436,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,993 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,600 sqft lot $219/sqft · 11% below area Est $489k · 11% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Entry opens to a welcoming family room with 10-foot ceiling and a wood mantel fireplace. Home office with French door entry just off the family room. Kitchen has a 5- burner gas cooktop, an island with built-in seating space, and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a generous wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom. French doors lead to the primary bathroom with dual vanities, a glass-enclosed shower, and a split walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms complete this design. Utility room and mud room just off the rear two-car garage.

Key facts

• 5 burner gas cooktop
• French door entry
• Home office

Tags

• WOOD MANTEL FIREPLACE
• HOME OFFICE
• FRENCH DOOR ENTRY
• 5 BURNER GAS COOKTOP
• ISLAND WITH BUILT-IN SEATING
• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy- and water-efficiency features including energy-efficient appliances, efficient HVAC, low-flow fixtures, drought-tolerant landscaping, rain/freeze sensors and efficient windows
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; HOA covers front yard maintenance, grounds maintenance, and management fees; Monthly HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Garage faces front; Attached 2-car garage (approx. 22' wide by 18' deep); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Sidewalks and concrete infrastructure; Standard municipal utilities (no MUD)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to other properties; New construction (incomplete)
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Few trees, landscaped interior lot in a subdivision; Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Community mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Farm sink; Walk-in pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level each with walk-in closet (all bedrooms on one level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks, separate shower, separate vanities, built-in cabinets, linen closet and medicine cabinet; Secondary bathroom with built-in cabinets and granite countertop
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat (smart home features)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smart home system; Walk-in closets; Decorative gas fireplace with gas logs
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room with built-in cabinets and room for a freezer; Mud room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $437k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $437k).
• Recommended offer: $424k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2925 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $423,793 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,240
• List price: $436,900
• Delta: -10.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+2%)	6mo	$449,900	$222	91
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+2%)	9mo	$502,900	$248	88
1628 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,993 (0%)	14mo	$449,900	$226	86
1608 Palo Duro Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,993 (0%)	13mo	$476,900	$239	85
1701 Palo Duro Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+2%)	14mo	$474,900	$235	83
2704 Biltmore Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,993 (0%)	14mo	$502,900	$252	83
2702 Biltmore Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+2%)	14mo	$509,900	$252	80
2700 Biltmore Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+2%)	17mo	$518,900	$256	77
1705 Victoria Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,057 (+3%)	17mo	$489,000	$238	75
2728 Biltmore Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,273 (+14%)	14mo	$525,000	$231	51
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (+3%)	1mo	$594,000	$290	50
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+10%)	10mo	$530,000	$241	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-58,481
• Equity at exit: $65,143

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-68,605
• Equity at exit: $37,775

Cash invested: $122,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2925
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,291
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,554/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$944
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,993

Max offer price $436,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $549	+0% $398	+5% $247	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $220	+0% $398	+5% $576	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $618	-0.5pp $509	base $398	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,225
• Closing costs: $13,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	0d	1	0.06mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.40mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	19d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $436,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   price $436,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $424,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $424,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $424,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $424,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $424,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $399,900 Active 556-char remark
12. 2026-04-29
    listed $399,900 Active 630-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,473
• − Property taxes: −$6,554
• − Insurance: −$2,184
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,317
• − Management: −$4,317
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$12,710
• Taxable loss: −$2,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$532
• After-tax cash flow: $5,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping. It is move-in ready and located in a community with amenities that add significant value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Playground maintenance — Keeps the community space attractive and functional

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Playground maintenance — Keeps the community space attractive and functional ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $436,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $424,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $399,900 NTREIS