785 Buck Holler Ln · Linn, MO 65016

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Other public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1922 3.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• 3.2 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1922

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Electricity connected (single phase); Water connected; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Single-family residence; House with two levels; Private ownership
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; Gravel road frontage on a private road

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main/upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cellar; No major appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#129 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Osage County R-III (rural): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #62 of 324 in MO (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Osage County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,099 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $71,790
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $219,100
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65016

• Home prices YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $122,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-112	+0% $-155	+5% $-197	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-195	+0% $-155	+5% $-115	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-117	base $-155	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $150,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 218.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osage County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931830
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,843
• Composite: 40.7/100
• National rank: #3668
• State rank: #62 of 324 in MO

Livability — Linn

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #7517

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,307

Population outlook (Osage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,082 people
• By 2030: 12,648 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 11,596 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 10,298 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 7,460 · -43.0%
• By 2100: 4,907 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osage

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+71.5 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.36%
• Current HPI: 196.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.