28124 Murcia St · Hayward, CA 94544

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1971 $278/sqft · 26% above area Est $159k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home in Spanish Ranch 1 has 2 bedrooms at opposite ends, 2 baths and rare yard space.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1971
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park allows pets with number/size limits and may require approval; Community clubhouse, pool and spa; Located in a managed park (Spanish Ranch I)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide mobile home
• Construction: Metal construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Side yard; Low-maintenance landscaping; Yard space; Awning-covered patio/porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Disposal; Free-standing range; Breakfast bar; Updated kitchen with solid-surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with solid-surface counters, stall shower, updated finishes and window; Other bath with shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid-surface countertops; Updated kitchen; Dining area; Storage; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,537
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 26.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $642
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $40,360
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94544

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $603	+0% $534	+5% $465	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $438	+0% $534	+5% $630	+10% $726
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $585	base $534	+0.5pp $482	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1112 Jason Creek Pl Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,700	$3.61	44d	1	0.43mi
720 W Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	630	$2,805	$4.45	0d	1	0.70mi
27942 Manon Ave Unit C Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	748	$2,150	$2.87	25d	1	0.93mi
382 Harris Rd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	453	$1,925	$4.25	15d	7	0.99mi
382 Harris Rd Unit 037 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	453	$1,925	$4.25	0d	1	0.99mi
382 Harris Rd Unit 016 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	453	$1,925	$4.25	25d	1	0.99mi
320 Harris Rd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	470	$1,925	$4.10	15d	1	1.02mi
320 Harris Rd Unit 048 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	470	$1,925	$4.10	5d	1	1.04mi
320 Harris Rd Unit 033 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	530	$2,495	$4.71	44d	1	1.04mi
320 Harris Rd Apt 52 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	470	$1,925	$4.10	44d	1	1.04mi
27475 Hesperian Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	618	$2,307	$3.73	0d	5	1.11mi
322 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,100	$3.00	22d	1	1.23mi
302 Dumont Ave Unit 1 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,400	$3.27	44d	1	1.37mi
302 Dumont Ave Unit 8 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,500	$3.40	44d	1	1.37mi
333 Dumont Ave Unit 6 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$2,150	$3.31	44d	1	1.41mi
333 Dumont Ave Unit 1 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	44d	1	1.42mi
28850 Dixon St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,406	$3.76	0d	9	1.49mi
655 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$3,149	$3.76	0d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $199,900 Active 729-char remark
16. 2025-12-31
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Mobile home in Spanish Ranch 1 has 2 bedrooms at opposite ends, 2 baths and rare yard space.

17. 2025-12-24
    historical 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Mobile home in Spanish Ranch 1 has 2 bedrooms at opposite ends, 2 baths and rare yard space.

18. 2025-12-23
    listed $140,000 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Mobile home in Spanish Ranch 1 has 2 bedrooms at opposite ends, 2 baths and rare yard space.

19. 1997-05-16
    soldstatus $25,000

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    NICE CLEAN AND ON CUL D SAC, LARGE YARD FO CHILDREN WASHER AND DRYER ARE IN THE LARGE AND THEY REMAIN.

20. 1997-04-19
    listed $28,500

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    NICE CLEAN AND ON CUL D SAC, LARGE YARD FO CHILDREN WASHER AND DRYER ARE IN THE LARGE AND THEY REMAIN.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $5,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 76,947
• Household income: $107,785
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2573.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 28% Two or more races 13% White 11% Black 7% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -907.12%
• Current HPI: 315.6082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+601.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-31 Sold (MLS) $140,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-23 Listed $140,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-05-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-04-19 Listed $28,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR