46 Packards Way Unit 309- Week 48 October · Waterville Valley, NH 03215

$500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 247 Days on market

Built 1967 $81/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unit #309 - Week 48 (November) is a deeded "FLEX" week mid-September and is a great time during the early Fall Season for your time share week at The Inns of Waterville Valley (The Inns). It sleeps 4 people and is a One Bedroom, two full bath corner unit on the ground floor. The unit has a full kitchen, dining area and living area with a beautiful gas fireplace and a pull out sofa bed, private bedroom with master bath and an indoor Hot Tub with windows looking out to the back yard and a sliding door that leads to an outdoor private deck and the back yard. Relax in the unit with the windows open or on your private deck and you can hear the babbling brook that runs along the back of

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Private bedroom
• Master bath

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• LIVING AREA
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BEDROOM
• MASTER BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road frontage on a public maintained road
• Financial info: Timeshare / fractional ownership: yes (weeks; 1 week)
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (approximately $976 yearly); Condo limited common area: yes; Common land acreage: 1.61

Exterior

• Parking: Common/shared paved driveway with right-of-way
• Utilities: Public water on-site; Private sewer available; On-site electric; Cable internet available; Cable available, telephone/phone service available
• Home design: Townhouse; Existing construction; Entry is part of a condominium complex (Inns of Waterville Valley); Unit/lot: 309 - Week 48 October
• Construction: Built in 1967; Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Property surveyed
• Exterior features: Beach access; Country setting; Deed restricted; Landscaped grounds; Mountain views; Recreational setting; Ski area nearby; Sloping lot; Near trails / walking trails; Wooded; In town; Near country club; Near golf course; Near paths; Near shopping; Near skiing; Near snowmobile trails; Valley view; Near public transportation

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (level 2)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom suite (level 1); Bedroom with bath (level 3)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Monitor-type heating
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Loft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $500.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $500).
• Recommended offer: $440 (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35 of equity ($3 loan paydown + $32 appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($440) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2740.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 25781.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 92055.50%
• DSCR: 4096.95
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 4889.82×
• Total profit: $684,435
• Equity at exit: $325

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10559.16×
• Total profit: $1,478,143
• Equity at exit: $598

Cash invested: $140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03215

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 26

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1 /mo · $8/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,877
• Net cashflow: $10,740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $107

Max offer price $500

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,740	-5% $10,740	+0% $10,740	+5% $10,740	+10% $10,739
Rent	-10% $9,657	-5% $10,199	+0% $10,740	+5% $11,281	+10% $11,822
Rate	-1.0pp $10,740	-0.5pp $10,740	base $10,740	+0.5pp $10,740	+1.0pp $10,740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125
• Closing costs: $15
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Sunny Side Way #9 Waterville Valley, NH	2.0	1.5	800	$26,500	$33.12	44d	1	0.12mi
29 Mountain Brook Way Waterville Valley, NH	2.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	44d	1	0.21mi
38 Windsor Hill Way #105 Waterville Valley, NH	2.0	1.5	1098	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $500 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $500 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $500 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $500 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $500 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $500 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $500 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $500 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $500 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $500
16. 2025-10-14
    listed $1,200 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $164,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$28
• − Property taxes: −$8
• − Insurance: −$2
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,154
• − Management: −$13,154
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$15
• Taxable income: $137,088
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32,901
• After-tax cash flow: $95,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterville Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 3306910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,976
• Composite: 46.42/100
• National rank: #5344
• State rank: #98 of 171 in NH

Livability — Waterville Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 269

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 20% Lithuanian 10% Scotch-Irish 9%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 541.9424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $500 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $1,200 PrimeMLS