Baja Plan · Providence Village, TX 76227

$224,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 655 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 654 days

Tags

• PRIVATE ONSITE AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $224,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,926.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James A Monaco (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 537 students, 36% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2643 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 655 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,355 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 655 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.10%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,926
• List price: $224,999
• Delta: -24.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1916 Ventasso Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	0mo	$248,999	$196	65
9907 Birch Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-3%)	3mo	$265,000	$230	59
4225 Jutland Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	0mo	$265,999	$210	55
1816 Ventasso Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	5mo	$246,999	$195	55
4216 Jutland Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	1mo	$249,999	$197	54
3125 Campeiro Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	1mo	$241,359	$191	53
1704 Goodwin Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+10%)	3mo	$260,000	$199	53
11217 Dales Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	2mo	$268,999	$212	52
3016 Campeiro Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$244,999	$194	51
3025 Campeiro Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	4mo	$241,999	$191	51
9870 Cedarcrest Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+10%)	4mo	$235,000	$180	48
9113 Waterman Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+14%)	3mo	$265,000	$196	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-89,655
• Equity at exit: $44,422

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-145,571
• Equity at exit: $25,759

Cash invested: $83,419 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $266,999 ($198/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +26.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2643
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,562
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,469/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,606

Max offer price $216,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-357	-5% $-460	+0% $-563	+5% $-666	+10% $-769
Rent	-10% $-713	-5% $-638	+0% $-563	+5% $-488	+10% $-413
Rate	-1.0pp $-413	-0.5pp $-487	base $-563	+0.5pp $-640	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,481
• Closing costs: $8,938
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	120d	1	0.29mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	139d	1	0.59mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	139d	1	0.62mi
3141 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1402	$1,945	$1.39	64d	1	0.65mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	103d	1	0.68mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	94d	1	0.68mi
3160 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	64d	1	0.68mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	103d	1	0.69mi
3181 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	57d	1	0.69mi
3125 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,899	$1.50	28d	1	0.69mi
3133 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	120d	1	0.70mi
3141 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	10d	1	0.70mi
3145 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	43d	1	0.70mi
3161 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	43d	1	0.70mi
9824 Birch Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,820	$1.46	139d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	120d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	117d	1	0.71mi
3040 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	114d	1	0.72mi
1723 Kenmore Rd Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,850	$1.27	54d	1	0.72mi
3156 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,850	$1.31	18d	1	0.73mi
10200 Cedar Lake Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$1,900	$1.27	139d	1	0.77mi
1221 Bristol Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,950	$1.50	139d	1	0.80mi
10325 Baron Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,250	$1.69	139d	1	0.80mi
9308 Harborview Dr Unit 9107 Providence Village, TX	2.0	2.5	951	$1,585	$1.67	47d	1	0.81mi
9301 Harborview Dr Unit 5107 Providence Village, TX	2.0	2.5	951	$1,599	$1.68	10d	1	0.82mi
9200 Harborview Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,753	$3.16	0d	169	0.84mi
12112 Steeplechase Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1204	$1,650	$1.37	89d	1	0.87mi
4049 Criollo Ct Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	39d	1	0.87mi
4032 Criollo Ct Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,400	$1.67	26d	1	0.89mi
8978 Fair Oaks Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,895	$1.30	41d	1	0.92mi
2281 Obsidian Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$3,000	$2.06	139d	1	0.94mi
12121 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,695	$1.43	20d	1	0.95mi
12112 Thoroughbred Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,745	$1.28	73d	1	0.95mi
12156 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,595	$1.34	139d	1	0.97mi
12132 Thoroughbred Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,835	$1.35	139d	1	0.98mi
12185 Steeplechase Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,600	$1.35	51d	1	0.98mi
12176 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	139d	1	1.00mi
12161 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	139d	1	1.00mi
12192 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,795	$1.51	41d	1	1.02mi
12145 Falabella Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1202	$1,695	$1.41	139d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $224,999 Active 655 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $224,999 Active 654 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $224,999 Active 653 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $224,999 Active 652 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $224,999 Active 651 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $224,999 Active 650 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $224,999 Active 649 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $224,999 Active 648 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $224,999 Active 647 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $224,999 Active 646 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $224,999 Active 645 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $224,999 Active 644 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $224,999 Active 643 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $224,999 Active 637 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $239,999 Active 637 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $239,999 Active 636 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 634 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 632 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $239,999 Active 630 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $239,999 Active 629 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $239,999 Active 628 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $239,999 Active 627 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $239,999 Active 626 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $239,999 Active 625 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $239,999 Active 624 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $239,999 Active 623 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $239,999 Active 622 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $239,999 Active 621 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $239,999 Active 620 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $239,999 Active 619 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $239,999 Active 618 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $239,999 Active 617 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $239,999 Active 616 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $239,999 Active 615 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $239,999 Active 614 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $239,999 Active 613 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $239,999 Active 612 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $239,999 Active 611 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $239,999 Active 610 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $239,999 Active 609 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $239,999 Active 607 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $239,999 Active 606 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $239,999 Active 605 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $239,999 Active 604 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 601 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,999 Active 600 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,999 Active 599 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $239,999 Active 598 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,999 Active 596 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,999 Active 594 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,688
• − Property taxes: −$4,469
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$8,667
• Taxable loss: −$12,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and ideal for young families and working professionals.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James A Monaco C+ TX #574/4,322 Nat'l #9,382/41,679 Middle Aubrey Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Aubrey H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $239,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $234,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Listed $235,999 Zillow