506 Bluebonnet St · Aubrey, TX 76227

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1957 3,528 sqft lot $221/sqft · 9% below area Est $175k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute two bedroom one bath home. Aubrey ISD

Key facts

• 3,528 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,900
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Caddell St	0.12mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	2mo	$275,000	$344	75
506 N Main St	0.71mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	2mo	$169,000	$220	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,613
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,179
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $169,000 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    Cute two bedroom one bath home. Aubrey ISD

16. 2026-04-12
    listed $175,000 Active 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    Cute two bedroom one bath home. Aubrey ISD

17. 2008-01-29
    soldstatus 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    INVESTORS DELIGHT! WATCH FOR HORNETS NESTS. CUTE FRAME HOME * GREAT RENTAL * NEEDS SOME WORK * ALSO PROPERTIES AT 504 AND 506 MAIN AUBREY CAN BE SOLD AS A PACKAGE * ALL MAKE OFFERS * AUBREY ISD

18. 2008-01-25
    soldstatus
19. 2008-01-17
    historical 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    INVESTORS DELIGHT! WATCH FOR HORNETS NESTS. CUTE FRAME HOME * GREAT RENTAL * NEEDS SOME WORK * ALSO PROPERTIES AT 504 AND 506 MAIN AUBREY CAN BE SOLD AS A PACKAGE * ALL MAKE OFFERS * AUBREY ISD

20. 2007-10-11
    listed $29,500 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    INVESTORS DELIGHT! WATCH FOR HORNETS NESTS. CUTE FRAME HOME * GREAT RENTAL * NEEDS SOME WORK * ALSO PROPERTIES AT 504 AND 506 MAIN AUBREY CAN BE SOLD AS A PACKAGE * ALL MAKE OFFERS * AUBREY ISD

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,033/yr (+$169/mo · 232.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$61
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $2,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aubrey, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+472.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2008-01-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-10-11 Listed $29,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.