5199 Timarron Dr · Scurry, TX 75158

$237,500

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 236 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot Est $219k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 6-Bedroom 3 Bath Home on 1 Acre in Timarron Estates – Crandall ISD! Welcome to country living with room for everyone! Situated on a full acre of land in desirable Timarron Estates, this 6-bedroom, 3-bath home offers endless possibilities for large families or those who just need extra space. Built in 2003 and offering 2,128 square feet, the home features a comfortable open layout that begins with a generous living room leading into the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes a center island and plenty of cabinet space — the seller is willing to install a stove prior to closing! Four of the bedrooms and two full baths are tucked on one side of the home, creating a perfect setup for kids or guests, while the spacious primary suite and adjoining flex room or office (used as a 6th bedroom) are privately located on the other. The primary bath includes dual vanities, a large soaking tub, a separate shower, and a huge walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy mature shade trees, open yard space ideal for playsets or backyard barbecues, and a 20x20 detached building that’s been divided into two rooms perfect for storage, a home gym, or a workshop. With Crandall ISD schools, space to spread out, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this home is your chance to make a country escape your own!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Detached building
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• OPEN LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• OPEN YARD SPACE
• DETACHED BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#616 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,184
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5265 Timarron Dr	0.07mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,432 (+14%)	15mo	$250,000	$103	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,250
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,850
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75158

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,233/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $237,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $181	+0% $113	+5% $46	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $27	+0% $113	+5% $200	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $174	base $113	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,500 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,500 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,500 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,500 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,500 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,500 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,500 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,500 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $237,500 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,500 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,500 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,500 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,500 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,500 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-01-07
    status Active 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    Spacious 6-Bedroom 3 Bath Home on 1 Acre in Timarron Estates – Crandall ISD! Welcome to country living with room for everyone! Situated on a full acre of land in desirable Timarron Estates, this 6-bedroom, 3-bath home offers endless possibilities for large families or those who just need extra space. Built in 2003 and offering 2,128 square feet, the home features a comfortable open layout that begins with a generous living room leading into the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes a center island and plenty of cabinet space — the seller is willing to install a stove prior to closing! Four of the bedrooms and two full baths are tucked on one side of the home, creating a perfect setup for kids or guests, while the spacious primary suite and adjoining flex room or office (used as a 6th bedroom) are privately located on the other. The primary bath includes dual vanities, a large soaking tub, a separate shower, and a huge walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy mature shade trees, open yard space ideal for playsets or backyard barbecues, and a 20x20 detached building that’s been divided into two rooms perfect for storage, a home gym, or a workshop. With Crandall ISD schools, space to spread out, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this home is your chance to make a country escape your own!

16. 2025-12-26
    historical Active Option Contract 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    Spacious 6-Bedroom 3 Bath Home on 1 Acre in Timarron Estates – Crandall ISD! Welcome to country living with room for everyone! Situated on a full acre of land in desirable Timarron Estates, this 6-bedroom, 3-bath home offers endless possibilities for large families or those who just need extra space. Built in 2003 and offering 2,128 square feet, the home features a comfortable open layout that begins with a generous living room leading into the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes a center island and plenty of cabinet space — the seller is willing to install a stove prior to closing! Four of the bedrooms and two full baths are tucked on one side of the home, creating a perfect setup for kids or guests, while the spacious primary suite and adjoining flex room or office (used as a 6th bedroom) are privately located on the other. The primary bath includes dual vanities, a large soaking tub, a separate shower, and a huge walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy mature shade trees, open yard space ideal for playsets or backyard barbecues, and a 20x20 detached building that’s been divided into two rooms perfect for storage, a home gym, or a workshop. With Crandall ISD schools, space to spread out, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this home is your chance to make a country escape your own!

17. 2025-10-27
    listed $249,500 Active 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    Spacious 6-Bedroom 3 Bath Home on 1 Acre in Timarron Estates – Crandall ISD! Welcome to country living with room for everyone! Situated on a full acre of land in desirable Timarron Estates, this 6-bedroom, 3-bath home offers endless possibilities for large families or those who just need extra space. Built in 2003 and offering 2,128 square feet, the home features a comfortable open layout that begins with a generous living room leading into the kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes a center island and plenty of cabinet space — the seller is willing to install a stove prior to closing! Four of the bedrooms and two full baths are tucked on one side of the home, creating a perfect setup for kids or guests, while the spacious primary suite and adjoining flex room or office (used as a 6th bedroom) are privately located on the other. The primary bath includes dual vanities, a large soaking tub, a separate shower, and a huge walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy mature shade trees, open yard space ideal for playsets or backyard barbecues, and a 20x20 detached building that’s been divided into two rooms perfect for storage, a home gym, or a workshop. With Crandall ISD schools, space to spread out, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this home is your chance to make a country escape your own!

18. 2007-02-28
    soldstatus 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Hud home to be sold as-is . Bid deadline: 01-21-07. Case#491-835305, general list date: 01-12-07.

19. 2007-01-22
    historical 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Hud home to be sold as-is . Bid deadline: 01-21-07. Case#491-835305, general list date: 01-12-07.

20. 2007-01-12
    listed $81,000 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Hud home to be sold as-is . Bid deadline: 01-21-07. Case#491-835305, general list date: 01-12-07.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,233 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,346 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,113/yr (+$93/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$3,233
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$2,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $1,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scurry

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #616
• US rank: #11669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,168

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.37%
• Current HPI: 269.5786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+208.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $249,500 NTREIS
• 2007-02-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-01-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-01-12 Listed $81,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,233 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.