9738 Glacier Gulch Rd · Weldon, CA 93283

$107,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 835 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1959 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

No Showings. Probate Sale. Structure is slight and needs repairs

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($585/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($740 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $107k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,142 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $51,687
• Equity at exit: $86,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $148,029
• Equity at exit: $175,654

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $79	+0% $49	+5% $18	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $10	+0% $49	+5% $87	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $76	base $49	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $107,000
3. 1999-02-23
   soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable loss: −$1,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+57.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $107,000 AVMLS
• 1999-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,356 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.