5786 Cobalt Falls Bnd #244 · Aiken, SC 29801

$272,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,334 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $117/sqft · 6% below area Est $290k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Improvement! Move-In Ready! Discover the Loblolly, a spacious home designed with five bedrooms and space for real life to happen. This floor plan offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and 2,334 square feet of intentional living space, along with a two-car garage. When you step inside through the foyer, you're welcomed by a main-level bedroom and full bathroom, giving you the flexibility for guests, a home office, play area, or an extra room when you need it. You're then brought into the main living area where the great room, kitchen, and dining space all come together.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Aiken — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Aiken Elementary (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 597 statewide, top 91%, 466 students, 100% FRL); Aiken High (math 19% / reading 84%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,195 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,598 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,892
• List price: $272,900
• Delta: -2.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5938 Cobalt Fls Bnd	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,334 (0%)	9mo	$278,990	$120	90
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.18mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-4%)	4mo	$279,900	$126	79
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.18mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-4%)	4mo	$279,900	$126	79
3499 NW Tanbark Oak Ln	0.50mi	5/3.0	2,273 (-3%)	0mo	$274,990	$121	72
5892 Cobalt Falls Bnd	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	4mo	$249,990	$120	69
3690 NW Tanbark Oak Ln	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,273 (-3%)	0mo	$307,490	$135	69
220 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,273 (-3%)	3mo	$279,990	$123	66
7146 Foggy River Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,459 (+5%)	11mo	$311,400	$127	64
9131 NW Wafer Ash Bnd	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,433 (+4%)	1mo	$274,990	$113	63
210 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,433 (+4%)	8mo	$303,968	$125	59
698 Shumard Oak Pl NW	0.54mi	5/2.5	2,576 (+10%)	7mo	$319,900	$124	50
234 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,998 (-14%)	11mo	$289,990	$145	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-48,120
• Equity at exit: $40,690

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-32,802
• Equity at exit: $23,595

Cash invested: $76,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,345 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 29801

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,094/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $253,318

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-41	+0% $-135	+5% $-230	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-223	+0% $-135	+5% $-48	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-66	base $-135	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,225
• Closing costs: $8,187
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
844 Silent Barge Cv Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	1763	$1,899	$1.08	72d	1	0.07mi
7259 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,045	$0.95	63d	1	0.17mi
7113 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,035	$0.94	72d	1	0.21mi
7034 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	5.0	2.0	2459	$2,375	$0.97	72d	1	0.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $282,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Loblolly L plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,334

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Loblolly L plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $272,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $272,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,990 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,990 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,990 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $282,990 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $282,990 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $282,990 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $282,990 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $282,990 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,990 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,990 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 68 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $282,990 Active 66 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,990 Active 65 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,990 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 63 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $282,990 Active 62 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 61 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,990 Active 60 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,990 Active 59 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $282,990 Active 58 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 57 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 56 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 55 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,990 Active 54 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,990 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,990 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,990 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,990 Active 50 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $282,990 Active 48 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $282,990 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 45 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 42 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,990 Active 41 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 37 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 36 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,990 Active 35 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 34 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 30 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,287
• − Property taxes: −$4,094
• − Insurance: −$1,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$7,939
• Taxable loss: −$6,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home offers spacious living with five bedrooms and 2,334 square feet of intentional living space. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minor maintenance needed to keep it looking its best.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Aiken Elementary F SC #539/597 Nat'l #36,161/41,679 High Aiken High D+ SC #146/196 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aiken 01
• NCES district ID: 4500720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,081
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5857
• State rank: #36 of 80 in SC

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Aiken

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10443

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Aiken County · 178,003 people
• City population: 71,807
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,108
• Household income: $59,573
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Aiken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 178,003 people
• By 2030: 182,876 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 189,970 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 193,840 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 199,453 · +12.1%
• By 2100: 192,403 · +8.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Aiken

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.9) · D 36.4% · R 62.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.9 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.52%
• Current HPI: 173.7944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $282,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Loblolly L plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,334

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Loblolly L plan)