Brayton Plan · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$135,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 771 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE SECONDARY BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $135,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $130,283.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $136k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $901 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,283
• List price: $135,990
• Delta: 4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,681
• Equity at exit: $19,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $21,375
• Equity at exit: $11,264

Cash invested: $36,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$683
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$163 /mo · $1,954/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $130,283

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,571
• Closing costs: $3,908
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.63mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,990 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $135,990 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,990 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,990 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,990 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,990 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,990 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,990 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,990 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,990 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,990 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,990 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,990 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,990 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $145,990 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,298
• − Property taxes: −$1,954
• − Insurance: −$651
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$3,790
• Taxable income: $789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $2,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. The home is move-in ready with a good condition score and potential for further value increases through cosmetic updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to newer, energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures in the bathrooms can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and attractive landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to newer, energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures in the bathrooms can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and attractive landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $145,990 Zillow