650 Pleasant Valley Rd · Newark, NY 14489

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1989 3.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This wonderfully maintained ranch-style home sits on 3.87 serene, wooded acres with a large outbuilding. Designed for easy, one-floor living, the home features an expansive open layout. This home is spacious inside and out. The kitchen is bright & ideal for cooking, with plenty of counter space & room to move. It's wide-open living area is great for relaxing or entertaining guests. This home was taken straight down to the studs and fixed right back up, creating a new stick frame house around the original structure. The large primary suite can be your own personal oasis. The metal roof adds huge value & both the furnace & hot water heater are less than 2 years old. Do

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Ranch style home
• Wooded acres

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• WOODED ACRES
• LARGE OUTBUILDING
• ONE FLOOR LIVING
• SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 3.87 acres (rectangular, rural lot) with dimensions 236 x 716

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces; Workshop in garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing (resale) condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum and vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; PEX plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch and covered porch; Private yard; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Barn(s), outbuilding, shed(s) and additional storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in country kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with forced air; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Den / bonus room; Separate formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in country kitchen with kitchen/family room combo; Living/dining room combination; Storage space; Solid surface counters; Workshop space; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($83/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Newark — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,503 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $98,516
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $289,955
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,049/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $179,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,049 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,049 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,049
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newark

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #6978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $179,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,049 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.