418 W Oak St · Shenandoah, PA 17976

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1896 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3 bedroom twin ready to move into. Oil heat. Patio. 1.5 baths. See pics

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• Large closets
• New roof

Tags

• LARGE CLOSETS
• LOTS OF STORAGE
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (residential property); Facing information not provided
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Asphalt roof; No foundation details provided; Built area above grade: 1,144
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Sidewalks

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Unfinished walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 12.5% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#720 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, commute F, employment F.
• Shenandoah Valley SD (town): math 20% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #454 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 169 units permitted in Schuylkill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Schuylkill County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $65k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.98%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 E Lloyd St	0.47mi	3/—	1,200 (+5%)	9mo	$30,000	$25	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $54,156
• Equity at exit: $32,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $128,493
• Equity at exit: $52,390

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17976

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $689/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $538

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $700	+0% $681	+5% $663	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $626	+0% $681	+5% $736	+10% $792
Rate	-1.0pp $714	-0.5pp $698	base $681	+0.5pp $664	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
230 W Arlington St Shenandoah, PA	3.0	1.0	1143	$1,400	$1.22	44d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $64,900 Active
17. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $16,000 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom twin ready to move into. Oil heat. Patio. 1.5 baths. See pics

18. 2016-09-08
    soldstatus $16,000
19. 2016-08-30
    historical 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom twin ready to move into. Oil heat. Patio. 1.5 baths. See pics

20. 2016-07-28
    listed $18,000 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom twin ready to move into. Oil heat. Patio. 1.5 baths. See pics

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$689
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $7,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $6,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4221490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,968
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7851
• State rank: #454 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #7134

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, PA
• City population: 5,988
• Population (ZIP): 5,988

Population outlook (Schuylkill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,447 people
• By 2030: 133,121 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 124,172 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 115,611 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 100,796 · -26.7%
• By 2100: 86,667 · -36.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuylkill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+39.9 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 308.8036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+260.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $64,900 CSVBR
• 2016-09-09 Sold (MLS) $16,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-28 Listed $18,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $689 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.