3406 E 15th St · Lubbock, TX 79403

$37,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 343 Days on market

Built 1946 6,499 sqft lot $24/sqft · 44% below area Est $68k · 44% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

Key facts

• New roof
• Serene neighborhood
• 6,499 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• SERENE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,439 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.22%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,393
• List price: $37,999
• Delta: -44.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $33,510
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.12×
• Total profit: $75,734
• Equity at exit: $3,285

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $335

Max offer price $37,999

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $660	+0% $649	+5% $638	+10% $628
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $603	+0% $649	+5% $695	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $668	-0.5pp $659	base $649	+0.5pp $639	+1.0pp $629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	22d	1	0.08mi
411 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	14d	1	0.74mi
3611 E 3rd Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,199	$1.04	44d	1	0.85mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.87mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	0.93mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	45d	1	0.94mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.00mi
2721 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	14d	1	1.03mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	22d	1	1.28mi
2612 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,095	$0.92	22d	1	1.32mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$695	$0.59	22d	1	1.38mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$900	$0.77	44d	1	1.38mi
1809 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	1.40mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	22d	1	1.41mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	44d	1	1.41mi
3118 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	22d	1	1.48mi
3116 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	22d	1	1.48mi
306 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,165	$0.90	22d	1	1.49mi
2924 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,150	$0.92	22d	1	1.49mi
3305 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,000	$0.60	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,999 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,999 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,999 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,999 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $37,999 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,999 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $37,999 Active 335 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,999 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,999 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,999 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $37,999 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $37,999 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,999 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,999 Active 326 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,999 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $37,999 Active 324 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    status Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

18. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

19. 2025-12-22
    price $37,999 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

20. 2025-06-27
    listed $39,999 Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

21. 2025-06-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! We just listed this renovation-worthy three-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family home nestled in a serene neighborhood just outside the bustling hub of Lubbock. Perfect as a starter home project, this property boasts a solid layout that you can customize to your own personal liking. It is being sold AS IS, but it will have a new roof. Located only a short 3-mile distance from Downtown Lubbock and with easy access to the TX-289 Loop, navigating the city is effortless. We also have several other homes for sale in the Lubbock area. You can buy just one or all three homes in a PACKAGE DEAL. You can buy 1503 E. 8th St.; 912 E. 36th; and 3406 E. 15th St. all for a PACKAGE PRICE of $121,999. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name.

22. 2025-06-12
    price $70,049
23. 2024-09-09
    price $63,049
24. 2024-06-26
    listed $64,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $7,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $5,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-41.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $37,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $39,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $70,049 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $63,049 HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $64,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · -58.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.