14409 SW 26th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$227,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living at its finest! New home on an undeveloped road. Be among the first to experience the charm of this new construction “Magnolia” Model by Bakan Homes. This beautifully designed home offers a fusion of modern comfort that’s perfect for families, first-time homebuyers, or anyone looking for a fantastic investment opportunity. With 8’ ceilings in the bedrooms and vaulted ceilings in the social areas, this home welcomes you with a sense of openness and comfort. The heart of this home boasts soft-close cabinets, elegant quartz countertops, and top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, including a dishwasher. It's a chef's dream! The kitchen peninsula is ado

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Soft-close cabinets
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN PENINSULA
• LED PENDANT LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoning: R1; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres; Living area reported by builder; Unfurnished

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; South-facing; Completed/new construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Bakan Homes (model: Magnolia)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Dirt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 74 x 135

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($789/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.4% in Rainbow Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $228k implies a 470% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,943 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,865
• Equity at exit: $33,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,664
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $227,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $130	+0% $66	+5% $1	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-5	+0% $66	+5% $137	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $124	base $66	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	0.27mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	14d	1	0.34mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	21d	1	0.67mi
14896 SW 33rd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,900	$1.16	21d	1	0.67mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	14d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $227,999
3. 2026-04-09
   price $231,499
4. 2026-03-14
   price $231,999
5. 2026-02-06
   listed $232,900 Active
6. 2005-09-08
   soldstatus $40,000
7. 2005-06-07
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,111/yr (+$93/mo · 142.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,771
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$3,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$765
• After-tax cash flow: $1,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+936.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $227,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $231,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $231,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $232,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $782 · +81.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.