20607 Bauer Gulch Drive Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,174 sqft lot Est $266k · 25% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bauer Landing, where comfort, convenience, and community come together. This beautifully maintained home offers a warm and inviting atmosphere with durable ceramic tile flooring throughout the main living areas, combining style with easy upkeep. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, rich espresso cabinetry, and a brand new stove with matching built-in microwave Step outside and enjoy the outstanding neighborhood amenities. Bauer Landing features a 3.5 acre community park complete with playgrounds, and expansive green spaces perfect for outdoor recreation, family gatherings, or simply enjoying the Texas sunshine. Ideally situated with convenient access to

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Community park
• Espresso cabinetry

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ESPRESSO CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COMMUNITY PARK
• PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available; Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Bauer Landing Homeowner's Association; Annual HOA fee of $516

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-767/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,659 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,533
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+4%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	78
22706 Tabberts Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-4%)	1mo	$220,000	$157	78
22530 Threefold Ridge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+9%)	1mo	$249,700	$158	69
22202 San Lioni Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	58
23123 Glory Orchid Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+4%)	1mo	$302,900	$201	56
19307 Licola Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+12%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	55
22011 Maddaloni View Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+12%)	1mo	$296,990	$183	55
21647 Carbonari Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+13%)	1mo	$330,990	$202	52
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+13%)	1mo	$284,990	$174	51
19615 Costa Marra Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+13%)	1mo	$266,990	$162	47
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	46
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,391
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,985
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,603/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,184

Max offer price $188,659

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-7	+0% $-64	+5% $-121	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-147	+0% $-64	+5% $19	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-13	base $-64	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.35mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	2d	1	0.47mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,950 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,950 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,950 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,950 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-04
   listed $199,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,603 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,603 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$6,603
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$3,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$946
• After-tax cash flow: $179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Bauer Landing offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It is ideal for both resale and rental due to its location and updates that can be made to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Replace old appliances — Modernizes kitchen and appeals to buyers
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace old appliances — Modernizes kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $199,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-30 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $273,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-05 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Listed $284,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+115.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,603 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.