Lexington Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$304,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 570 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An entertainer's dream, the two-story Lexington dazzles with an inviting kitchen-featuring a large center island-overlooking a spacious great room and dining area. Secluded at the back of the main floor, you'll also love a private owner's suite, complete with a dual-vanity bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms are located upstairs-one boasting a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Inviting kitchen
• Large center island
• Spacious great room

Tags

• TWO-STORY LEXINGTON
• INVITING KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL-VANITY BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 978 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 570 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $233,846 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 570 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,834
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -6.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Gullivers Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,881 (+5%)	1mo	$334,800	$178	81
154 Tolo Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+3%)	2mo	$334,530	$182	72
130 Hornet St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,587 (-11%)	1mo	$303,860	$191	68
116 Hornet St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,587 (-11%)	0mo	$299,990	$189	67
170 Hornet St	0.22mi	4/3.0	1,998 (+12%)	2mo	$316,935	$159	66
186 Hornet St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-10%)	1mo	$299,990	$186	66
119 Two Bits Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	2mo	$316,990	$158	64
212 Bendecido Loop	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,531 (-14%)	1mo	$297,705	$194	61
222 Bendecido Loop	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,531 (-14%)	1mo	$287,955	$188	59
142 Tolo Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,523 (-15%)	1mo	$286,990	$188	59
435 Lucky Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,522 (-15%)	2mo	$299,490	$197	58
155 Tolo Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,523 (-15%)	2mo	$304,265	$200	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $152,230
• Equity at exit: $295,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $469,884
• Equity at exit: $636,910

Cash invested: $91,794 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,990 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 978
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,918/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $267,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-192	-5% $-305	+0% $-418	+5% $-531	+10% $-645
Rent	-10% $-603	-5% $-511	+0% $-418	+5% $-326	+10% $-233
Rate	-1.0pp $-253	-0.5pp $-335	base $-418	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,959
• Closing costs: $9,835
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Gullivers Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2304	$2,850	$1.24	93d	1	0.07mi
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,949	$1.50	42d	1	0.11mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	53d	1	0.65mi
207 Harris St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,600	$1.14	30d	1	0.84mi
104 Whitney Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2502	$1,995	$0.80	18d	1	0.92mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	73d	1	0.96mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	53d	1	0.97mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1637	$1,895	$1.16	39d	1	0.98mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	47d	1	0.98mi
100 Four Star Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,750	$1.14	21d	1	1.00mi
100 Four Star Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,950	$1.28	42d	1	1.00mi
230 Brown St Unit B Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,700	$1.26	11d	1	1.08mi
606 Cardinal St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$1,975	$0.99	21d	1	1.09mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	93d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 570 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $304,990 Active 568 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $304,990 Active 567 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $304,990 Active 566 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $304,990 Active 565 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $304,990 Active 562 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $304,990 Active 560 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $304,990 Active 559 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $304,990 Active 557 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $304,990 Active 555 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $304,990 Active 554 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $304,990 Active 553 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $304,990 Active 552 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $304,990 Active 551 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $304,990 Active 549 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $304,990 Active 548 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $304,990 Active 547 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $304,990 Active 546 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $304,990 Active 545 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,990 Active 544 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,990 Active 543 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $304,990 Active 542 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $304,990 Active 541 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $304,990 Active 540 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $304,990 Active 538 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $304,990 Active 537 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $304,990 Active 536 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 534 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 533 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 532 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $304,990 Active 531 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $304,990 Active 530 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $304,990 Active 529 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $304,990 Active 528 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $304,990 Active 527 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $304,990 Active 525 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $304,990 Active 523 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $304,990 Active 522 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $304,990 Active 519 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $304,990 Active 518 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $304,990 Active 517 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $304,990 Active 516 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $304,990 Active 514 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $304,990 Active 510 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $304,990 Active 509 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,990 Active 508 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 505 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 504 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 503 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 502 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,364
• − Property taxes: −$4,918
• − Insurance: −$1,639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,245
• − Management: −$2,245
• − Depreciation: −$9,537
• Taxable loss: −$10,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Lexington Plan home in Elgin, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting, landscaping, and window treatments to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-29 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-11 Listed $304,990 Zillow