2101 Chinaberry Cir SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2004 $186/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pristine Condition, Roof (2022) only a few years old, Lock and go home in the southern part of Palm Bay, Gated Community of Fairway Isles at Bayside Lakes. Enjoy a active community lifestyle. Clubhouse, pool, golf nearby, tennis, pickle ball. Home is move-in condition, seller was very meticulous. Tile and Wood floors thorough out, Breakfast nook in the kitchen with a coffee bar and pantry. Volume ceiling in living area, Screened and covered patio, Corner lot. Room for a private pool. So much character, minutes to schools shopping, dining and more. Lawn care included in monthly HOA fee.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lawn care included
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• SCREENED AND COVERED PATIO
• CORNER LOT
• ROOM FOR A PRIVATE POOL
• LAWN CARE INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Association: Bayside Management; Monthly association fee of $186; Fees cover common areas, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities and reserve fund; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pickleball, sidewalks, trails/paths, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage with door opener; Unassigned parking available
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; County sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Residential property; Faces south
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio with screened area; Community pool; Gated community; Has a view; Lot less than quarter acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (11 x 11); Bedroom (11 x 11); Bedroom (15 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Blinds; Single-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-417 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $315k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,871 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $146,474
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $455,305
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,934/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$186
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,697

Max offer price $241,335

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-239	-5% $-328	+0% $-417	+5% $-506	+10% $-595
Rent	-10% $-588	-5% $-503	+0% $-417	+5% $-331	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-258	-0.5pp $-337	base $-417	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2250 Chinaberry Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,995	$1.20	25d	1	0.16mi
978 Remington Green Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.39mi
402 Breckenridge Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	25d	1	0.63mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	16d	1	0.84mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	16d	1	0.85mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	16d	1	0.90mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	23d	1	1.05mi
2036 Walsh Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,930	$1.45	25d	1	1.07mi
1150 Tiger St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,950	$1.15	16d	1	1.13mi
2910 Emerson Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	16d	1	1.13mi
1068 Saint Johns St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,000	$1.50	25d	1	1.17mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	21d	1	1.21mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	25d	1	1.29mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	23d	1	1.30mi
1517 Wacker Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	1.34mi
1718 Sawgrass Dr SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2248	$2,400	$1.07	25d	1	1.37mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	1.39mi
818 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,795	$1.20	25d	1	1.41mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	25d	1	1.42mi
822 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,835	$1.24	25d	1	1.43mi
1150 Raoul St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	25d	1	1.44mi
1523 Elmhurst Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,325	$1.15	25d	1	1.44mi
328 Hammonton St SW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1942	$2,500	$1.29	25d	1	1.45mi
1736 La Maderia Dr SW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1873	$2,000	$1.07	25d	1	1.47mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	16d	1	1.47mi
1733 La Maderia Dr SW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,195	$1.18	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $186 · $2,232/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $315,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Pristine Condition, Roof (2022) only a few years old, Lock and go home in the southern part of Palm Bay, Gated Community of Fairway Isles at Bayside Lakes. Enjoy a active community lifestyle. Clubhouse, pool, golf nearby, tennis, pickle ball. Home is move-in condition, seller was very meticulous. Tile and Wood floors thorough out, Breakfast nook in the kitchen with a coffee bar and pantry. Volume ceiling in living area, Screened and covered patio, Corner lot. Room for a private pool. So much character, minutes to schools shopping, dining and more. Lawn care included in monthly HOA fee.

17. 2026-03-21
    listed $315,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Pristine Condition, Roof (2022) only a few years old, Lock and go home in the southern part of Palm Bay, Gated Community of Fairway Isles at Bayside Lakes. Enjoy a active community lifestyle. Clubhouse, pool, golf nearby, tennis, pickle ball. Home is move-in condition, seller was very meticulous. Tile and Wood floors thorough out, Breakfast nook in the kitchen with a coffee bar and pantry. Volume ceiling in living area, Screened and covered patio, Corner lot. Room for a private pool. So much character, minutes to schools shopping, dining and more. Lawn care included in monthly HOA fee.

18. 2018-08-01
    historical 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Excellent condition home that has been maintained & had upgrades including rounded corners, screened lanai, 18'''' tile & hardwood flooring, tiled baths, oak cabinetry, newer AC system with 16 SEER unit & UV, marble window ledges & exterior painted in 2009. Home backs up to a preserve easement with the golf cart path leading to the Arnold Palmer Signature Golf Course. 10 minutes to I-95 & shopping close by. Lawn service included! Short Sale. Pre-approved list price by lender. BANK WANTS LISTED $.

19. 2016-08-16
    historical
20. 2016-08-16
    historical
21. 2016-08-16
    historical
22. 2015-10-15
    soldstatus $156,000
23. 2015-10-14
    soldstatus $156,000
24. 2015-07-21
    listed $165,000
25. 2012-09-04
    listed $104,500 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Excellent condition home that has been maintained & had upgrades including rounded corners, screened lanai, 18'''' tile & hardwood flooring, tiled baths, oak cabinetry, newer AC system with 16 SEER unit & UV, marble window ledges & exterior painted in 2009. Home backs up to a preserve easement with the golf cart path leading to the Arnold Palmer Signature Golf Course. 10 minutes to I-95 & shopping close by. Lawn service included! Short Sale. Pre-approved list price by lender. BANK WANTS LISTED $.

26. 2010-07-26
    listed $159,900
27. 2007-07-18
    soldstatus $173,000
28. 2007-06-29
    soldstatus $175,000
29. 2007-02-11
    listed $179,900
30. 2006-11-05
    listed $198,900
31. 2006-06-30
    listed $219,000
32. 2003-07-17
    soldstatus $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,934 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$681/yr (+$57/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,934
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − HOA: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,565
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $315,000 SCMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $315,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2018-08-01 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2015-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-14 Sold (MLS) $156,000 SCMLS
• 2015-07-21 Listed $165,000 SCMLS
• 2012-09-04 Listed $104,500 SCMLS
• 2010-07-26 Listed $159,900 SCMLS
• 2007-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 SCMLS
• 2007-02-11 Listed $179,900 SCMLS
• 2006-11-05 Listed $198,900 SCMLS
• 2006-06-30 Listed $219,000 SCMLS
• 2003-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,934 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.