8430 SE 15th Pl #91 · Lake Stevens, WA 98258

$229,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1990 $129/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cardinal Estates, a 55+ community. This 3 bedrooms and 2.75 bath sq feet of 1848 home sits on a landscaped lot including enclosed sun porch and storage shed. Including a double car carport and side parking. This home has a open floor plan with a large kitchen, dining room, living area, large primary bedroom with new carpet and utility room with storage; all kitchen appliances are included in sale. New roof in 2025. Space rent at $1102.66 including sewer, RV parking is available in park. Enjoy the privacy that is provided by the mature landscaping This great location is close to Hwy 9, Hwy 2 and I5, Costco, Cavallero Station, and Frontier Village.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Large kitchen
• Dining room

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• DOUBLE CAR CARPORT
• SIDE PARKING
• LARGE KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing active; Buyer broker compensation: 2.5%
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Located in Cardinal Estate manufactured home park; Park approved for sale; Senior community (senior exemption); Approximately 91 homes in the park; Pets allowed — see remarks; Land lease: $1,102

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Uncovered parking; RV parking available in park
• Utilities: Electric energy; Public water (PUD); Sewer via park (Cardinal Estates); Power by PUD; Dish satellite connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Good condition
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction materials; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Manufactured house structure
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Paved lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 three-quarter bath; 2 bathtubs; 3 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Water heater (electric, located on back porch); Skylights; Drapes; Walk-in pantry; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary bedroom; Awnings; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Stevens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in WA, #917 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Lake Stevens School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #31 of 291 in WA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 418 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $223,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,894
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -2.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8430 15th Pl SE #88	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	7mo	$220,000	$123	90
8430 15th Pl SE #94	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	7mo	$270,000	$152	90
8430 15th Pl SE #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	10mo	$280,500	$157	86
8430 15th Pl SE #44	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	12mo	$234,950	$132	86
8430 15th Pl SE #82	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	13mo	$236,000	$132	85
8628 19th St SE	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+4%)	2mo	$506,000	$274	80
8430 15th Pl SE #85	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	23mo	$264,900	$149	76
8430 15th Pl SE #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	19mo	$250,000	$145	75
8430 15th Pl SE #34	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	6mo	$249,950	$159	71
8411 15th Pl SE	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-9%)	7mo	$479,000	$296	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,313
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $38,031
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98258

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7815 14th St SE Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.5	1587	$3,100	$1.95	24d	1	0.56mi
9503 15th St SE Unit B Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	1.5	2280	$2,600	$1.14	24d	1	0.58mi
7412 19th Pl SE Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,400	$1.02	4d	1	0.74mi
609 84th Ave SE Lake Stevens, WA	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,800	$1.61	12d	1	0.74mi
10103 16th Pl SE #1 Lake Stevens, WA	4.0	4.0	2105	$3,100	$1.47	43d	1	0.94mi
9504 Chapel Hill Rd Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,950	$2.20	5d	1	1.20mi
610 103rd Ct SE Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.5	1870	$3,400	$1.82	20d	1	1.30mi
2430 106th Dr SE Lake Stevens, WA	3.0	2.5	1830	$3,000	$1.64	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $229,900
16. 2026-05-08
    price $239,900
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $259,900 Active
18. 2012-03-19
    status Pending
19. 2012-01-24
    price
20. 2011-10-06
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,900
• − Management: −$2,900
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $6,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $8,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Stevens School District
• NCES district ID: 5304200
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $78,301
• Composite: 58.12/100
• National rank: #2141
• State rank: #31 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stevens

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #917

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Stevens, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 52,752
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 52,752
• Household income: $123,898
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 786.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -725.77%
• Current HPI: 303.8934
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $229,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $259,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-24 Price Changed — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-06 Listed — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-30.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $5 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.