30 Otsego St · Oakley, CA 94561

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 973 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $205/sqft · 24% above area Est $160k · 24% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Striking NEW 2 bed / 2 bath home located in the desirable Eagle City Mobile Home Park. This beautiful home features modern touches with stainless steel kitchen appliances, recessed LED can lights, and beautiful custom cabinets. Other fabulous features include double pane windows, a laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, and a spacious carport for your vehicle. Enjoy the nearby parks, shopping areas and great restaurants. Have it all with this beautiful home, book an appointment today! A brand new Clayton Fairpoint 54 x 20 serial#: SAC039591CA A/B.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Laundry room
• Double pane windows

Tags

• RECESSED LED CAN LIGHTS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• SPACIOUS CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,843
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 37.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Geneseo St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+5%)	6mo	$184,950	$181	86
69 Oneida St	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (-1%)	21mo	$180,000	$188	78
24 Otsego St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+11%)	11mo	$199,500	$185	71
19 Otsego St	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	14mo	$215,000	$195	66
105 Ontario St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+7%)	24mo	$190,000	$183	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,177
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $48,857
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94561

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,134	$3.11	1d	1	0.27mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,813	$2.26	1d	9	0.28mi
4290 Mehaffey Way Oakley, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	1d	1	0.92mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	3d	1	1.33mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	1d	9	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $219,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-03-12
    price $219,000
15. 2025-09-16
    listed $234,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $2,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $5,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Eagle City Mobile Home Park is move-in ready with modern updates and a good condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,368
• Household income: $134,678
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 614.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.42%
• Current HPI: 301.9916
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $234,900 CRMLS