4529 Nevada Falls Dr · Conroe, TX 77303

$299,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 6,769 sqft lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $331k · 9% under $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCREDIBLE SIX BEDROOM NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 2 STORY IN SILVERTHORNE! Fantastic Floorplan and Design! Extended Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen with Tons of Cabinetry & Quartz Countertops! Spacious Living Room & Dining Area! Privately Located Primary Suite on First Floor Offers Lovely Bath with Dual Sinks, Large Shower, & ENORMOUS Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Useful Gameroom Upstairs! Convenient Utility Room! Tons of Incredible Features: LED Can Lighting, Vinyl Plank Wood-Look Flooring, Sprinkler System, Full Sod, Tankless Water Heater, PLUS MORE! Great Community with a Recreation Center, Playground, Pickleball Court, Walking Trails & Pool! Estimated Completion - Spring 2026!

Key facts

• Large shower
• Led can lighting
• 6,769 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE SHOWER
• ENORMOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• USEFUL GAMEROOM UPSTAIRS
• CONVENIENT UTILITY ROOM
• LED CAN LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-936/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,823 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,880
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -9.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,267
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,747
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $815/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $286,214

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $7	+0% $-78	+5% $-163	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-167	+0% $-78	+5% $11	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $-2	base $-78	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10005 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	5.0	2.5	2305	$2,250	$0.98	3d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $299,990 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,990 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-04-12
    listed $299,990 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    INCREDIBLE SIX BEDROOM NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 2 STORY IN SILVERTHORNE! Fantastic Floorplan and Design! Extended Foyer Leads to Gourmet Island Kitchen with Tons of Cabinetry & Quartz Countertops! Spacious Living Room & Dining Area! Privately Located Primary Suite on First Floor Offers Lovely Bath with Dual Sinks, Large Shower, & ENORMOUS Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Useful Gameroom Upstairs! Convenient Utility Room! Tons of Incredible Features: LED Can Lighting, Vinyl Plank Wood-Look Flooring, Sprinkler System, Full Sod, Tankless Water Heater, PLUS MORE! Great Community with a Recreation Center, Playground, Pickleball Court, Walking Trails & Pool! Estimated Completion - Spring 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $815 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,675/yr (+$390/mo · 573.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$815
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $299,990 HARMLS