405 Wilson Rd · Conroe, TX 77301

$179,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,331 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1970 8,999 sqft lot Est $209k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect opportunity for investors or first-time home buyers! This charming Single-Family home boasts 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 1331 square feet of living space. Situated on a spacious 8999 square foot lot, this property offers great potential for a flip or rental income. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity in a prime location. Bring your best offers before it's gone!

Key facts

• 8,999 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,331; Lot about 8,999 sq ft (0.2066 acres); Annual tax information available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1970; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,263 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,967
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 N Roberson St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+5%)	2mo	$165,000	$118	79
1510 N San Jacinto St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+6%)	10mo	$189,000	$134	75
809 W Semands	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$249,999	$174	64
311 Harris Blvd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+8%)	2mo	$295,000	$205	60
2113 Timber Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-0%)	11mo	$249,990	$189	54
1106 Cowan Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (-4%)	11mo	$199,900	$156	54
15 Robinhood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	15mo	$190,000	$147	52
921 Chase Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+10%)	8mo	$229,900	$157	52
606 Reverse St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+13%)	11mo	$195,000	$129	51
1310 N 7th St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,357 (+2%)	9mo	$170,000	$125	51
908 Thomas Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,439 (+8%)	15mo	$240,000	$167	46
1107 N 6th St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+6%)	15mo	$222,900	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-33,203
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-40,742
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,995/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $173,990

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $22	+0% $-28	+5% $-79	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-90	+0% $-28	+5% $33	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $17	base $-28	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,895	$2.30	8d	10	0.25mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,309	$1.34	44d	1	0.25mi
650 Everett St Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,800	$1.16	44d	1	0.30mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 958 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,143	$1.25	11d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,119	$1.22	8d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,111	$1.21	3d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,481	$1.14	3d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 934 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,513	$1.17	11d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,524	$1.18	12d	1	0.33mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,103	$1.20	13d	1	0.33mi
907 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,760	$1.36	44d	1	0.34mi
1101 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,190	$1.65	16d	13	0.46mi
115 Lillian St Unit LL115 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	6d	1	0.50mi
113 Betty St Unit BE113 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	21d	1	0.57mi
204 Peggy St Unit PG204 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	21d	1	0.68mi
2020 Plantation Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,180	$1.51	2d	18	0.77mi
707 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,245	$1.07	44d	1	0.81mi
605 Kathy St Unit KA605 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	14d	1	0.81mi
2219 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,100	$1.08	44d	1	0.88mi
2301 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,250	$1.20	44d	1	0.89mi
1900 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,320	$1.30	8d	1	0.94mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1957 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,247	$1.23	14d	1	0.96mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 420 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,065	$1.05	11d	1	0.96mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1933 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,814	$1.53	11d	1	0.96mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,782	$1.51	3d	1	0.97mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,033	$1.02	3d	1	0.97mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,041	$1.02	8d	1	0.97mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,076	$1.06	12d	1	0.98mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,825	$1.54	12d	1	0.98mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,321	$1.20	3d	1	0.99mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 1233 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,353	$1.23	11d	1	0.99mi
511 N 3rd St Conroe, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	4d	1	1.02mi
2200 Plantation Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,773	$1.70	2d	18	1.02mi
241 Interstate 45 S Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.05mi
1515 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,330	$1.61	16d	31	1.08mi
2461 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,025	$1.00	44d	1	1.17mi
1945 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,925	$2.07	2d	16	1.25mi
650 Sgt Ed Holcomb Blvd N Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,245	$1.95	3d	107	1.31mi
231 Interstate 45 N Unit 288 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,127	$1.28	3d	1	1.32mi
217 Oakcrest Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1663	$1,675	$1.01	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $179,000 Active
16. 2003-02-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,995 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,995
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2003-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,995 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.