Linfield Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$221,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Modern layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• MODERN LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,975.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,975
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -18.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1558 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+0%)	1mo	$207,990	$126	89
1550 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+0%)	0mo	$211,990	$128	89
18646 Periwinkle Brook Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+0%)	1mo	$210,990	$127	82
1535 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	1mo	$216,990	$126	82
1738 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-3%)	1mo	$242,990	$152	81
1539 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	0mo	$227,990	$130	79
18515 Hazel Valley Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$300,990	$172	74
1710 Indigo Chase Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+15%)	1mo	$249,990	$132	68
1518 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	1mo	$210,990	$139	68
1734 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+15%)	0mo	$254,990	$134	67
1703 Indigo Chase Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+15%)	1mo	$256,990	$135	67
1507 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-12%)	1mo	$178,540	$122	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-61,892
• Equity at exit: $41,745

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-83,946
• Equity at exit: $24,207

Cash invested: $78,393 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.3 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,990 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $249,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-112	+0% $-208	+5% $-305	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-295	+0% $-208	+5% $-122	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-137	base $-208	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,994
• Closing costs: $8,399
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	73d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $221,990 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $221,990 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   price $221,990 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $226,990 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $226,990 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $226,990 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $226,990 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $226,990 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $246,990 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $246,990 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $246,990 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $246,990 Active 326 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $251,990 Active 325 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 323 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 322 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 321 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 320 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 318 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 317 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 316 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $251,990 Active 315 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 314 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 312 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 311 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 310 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 309 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 308 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 307 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 306 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 305 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 304 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 303 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 302 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 299 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 297 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 296 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 293 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $251,990 Active 292 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 291 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 290 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 288 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 284 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $251,990 Active 283 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 282 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 279 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 277 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 276 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,683
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $-724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,275–$24,825 screening

This modern single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation and structure, and the exterior and interior are well-maintained. The home is move-in ready with a few updates that would increase its value, such as painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the look of bathrooms ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Listed $289,990 Zillow