3204 Marian Ln · Wichita Falls, TX 76306

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 311 Days on market

Built 1956 $63/sqft · 29% below area Est $97k · 29% under ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom home is tucked away on nearly 1/2 acre in town. Priced to sell! Spacious living room with pine paneling. The kitchen has a gas stove, dishwasher, and pine cabinets. Formal dining. Isolated bedroom. Fabulous oversized fenced backyard has 2 storage buildings & several patios. Brick planter separates patio from yard and an archway. Great for small family or investors!

Key facts

• Several patios
• Storage buildings
• Archway

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• SEVERAL PATIOS
• BRICK PLANTER
• ARCHWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• City View ISD (urban): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #429 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.37%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,198
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -29.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $13,053
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $42,165
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76306

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 Ridgeway Dr Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,025	$1.15	44d	5	0.45mi
2801 Roanoke Dr Unit B Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$990	$1.13	44d	1	0.53mi
1450 Kinsale Ct Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,300	$1.13	44d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,000 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2025-08-06
   listed $75,000 Active 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   This 3-bedroom home is tucked away on nearly 1/2 acre in town. Priced to sell! Spacious living room with pine paneling. The kitchen has a gas stove, dishwasher, and pine cabinets. Formal dining. Isolated bedroom. Fabulous oversized fenced backyard has 2 storage buildings & several patios. Brick planter separates patio from yard and an archway. Great for small family or investors!

10. 2016-08-23
    soldstatus
11. 2016-02-01
    soldstatus 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    This is a package deal. Other properties include: , 8 pilot Point, 2937 Moffett. These properties are priced way below Tax Value. Great opportunity for Investors.

12. 2015-12-07
    listed $142,500 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    This is a package deal. Other properties include: , 8 pilot Point, 2937 Moffett. These properties are priced way below Tax Value. Great opportunity for Investors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$1,813
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$914
• After-tax cash flow: $3,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: City View ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814130
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,360
• Composite: 33.74/100
• National rank: #5372
• State rank: #429 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,963
• Household income: $46,957
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.29%
• Current HPI: 165.6314
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-47.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-06 Listed $75,000 WFAOR
• 2016-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-01 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2015-12-07 Listed $142,500 WFAOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,012 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.