3837 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR Way · Oakland, CA 94609

$1,200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,209 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1900 3,125 sqft lot Est $1275k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this unique triplex opportunity in the heart of Oakland. Positioned in an area experiencing major revitalization and ongoing development, this property offers investors, owner-users, and developers endless possibilities. Significant construction and improvements surrounding the property are transforming the neighborhood and may substantially enhance the future value, appeal, and long-term upside of the property and the surrounding community. This mixed-use triplex features a versatile layout with a ground-floor retail/commercial space, a spacious second floor with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a large third floor with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The proper

Key facts

• 3,125 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rent control
• Financial info: Property contains 3 total units; Total building area 4,209

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; One separate water meter; Two separate gas meters; Two separate electric meters
• Home design: Attached property; Three total stories; Single building containing all units; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Two or more common walls (multi-unit configuration)
• Exterior features: No pool; Walkstreet lot feature; Street lighting in the neighborhood

Interior

• Bedrooms: One unit with 3 bedrooms; One unit with 2 bedrooms; One unit with 0 bedrooms (studio/unspecified)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms in one 3‑bed unit; Two full bathrooms in one 2‑bed unit
• Interior features: Three or more levels; Main entry on level 1
• Laundry & utility: On‑site laundry (see remarks for details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative. Per door: $-15/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.19M (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.06M (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,587/mo this rent would consume 118% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 1721% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $375k; list at $1.20M implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,058,700 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,275,327
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 33rd St	0.42mi	4/4.0	4,048 (-4%)	7mo	$650,000	$161	64
477 41st St	0.36mi	5/4.0 (+1)	4,190 (-0%)	16mo	$1,300,000	$310	60
3508 Adeline St	0.59mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,629 (-14%)	2mo	$1,100,000	$303	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-158,471
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $29,871
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Oakland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+62

Rent Adjustment Program + Just Cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94609

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 28.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$1,617 /mo · $19,407/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,223
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,646

Max offer price $1,191,800

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $293	+0% $-46	+5% $-386	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-883	-5% $-465	+0% $-46	+5% $372	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $259	base $-46	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-674

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	5	4	$10,587
Total (3 units)			$10,587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $1,200,000 Active
16. 2016-01-06
    soldstatus $375,000
17. 2003-04-08
    soldstatus $510,000
18. 2000-10-05
    soldstatus $84,500
19. 1997-02-21
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 1988-08-22
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $19,407 · $1,617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,407 · $1,617/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$19,407
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,164
• − Management: −$10,164
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable loss: −$20,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,996
• After-tax cash flow: $4,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,194
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #11769
• State rank: #1007 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7245

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 385,993
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,928
• Household income: $107,834
• Rent vs Own: 67.1% rent · 32.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1721.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -765.68%
• Current HPI: 327.2982
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.51%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+943.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $1,200,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $510,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 1997-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,407 · +60.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.