9436 Gooden Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28314

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1984 0.28 ac lot Est $198k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming home in Fayetteville with a convenient location near Fort Bragg for an easy commute! Features include updated flooring, refreshed cabinets, and a kitchen with stainless steel appliances. 2025 HVAC - Functional layout with good natural light throughout. Fenced backyard offers space for pets, outdoor use, or entertaining.

Key facts

• Refreshed cabinets
• Updated flooring
• Convenient location

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• UPDATED FLOORING
• REFRESHED CABINETS
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing handled by Ashley Residential Group / EXP REALTY LLC

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, 1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One-story
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision: LAKE RIM NORTH; Zoned SF15 (Single Family Res 15)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Wood-burning fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-116/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis Chapel Middle (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #424 of 475 statewide, top 90%, 578 students, 100% FRL); Seventy-First High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,366 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 55% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $189k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,806 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9558 Holbrook Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,119 (+2%)	5mo	$208,000	$186	91
9380 Castle Falls Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-0%)	2mo	$197,500	$181	85
804 Turkey Ridge Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,121 (+2%)	5mo	$208,000	$186	82
9400 Gooden Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-7%)	2mo	$212,500	$208	81
1332 Oak Knolls Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-1%)	6mo	$172,000	$159	79
9561 Mountain Home Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,075 (-2%)	13mo	$210,000	$195	75
916 Inglewood Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	1mo	$170,000	$136	71
1108 Nan St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+1%)	0mo	$210,000	$190	66
9433 Gooden Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+14%)	12mo	$205,000	$164	65
9331 Castle Falls Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,181 (+8%)	11mo	$206,000	$174	62
1308 Carolee Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+13%)	10mo	$225,000	$181	58
7591 Shumont Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+7%)	13mo	$191,750	$164	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,066
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,127
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28314

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $187,296

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $44	+0% $-10	+5% $-63	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-72	+0% $-10	+5% $53	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $38	base $-10	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9330 Castle Falls Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,600	$1.43	22d	1	0.34mi
9329 Castle Falls Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	14d	1	0.37mi
4811 Cellner Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	14d	5	0.37mi
6909 Sunbeam Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	840	$900	$1.07	14d	1	0.84mi
5101 ParcStone Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,755	$1.71	14d	12	0.87mi
581 Abbotts Landing Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,525	$1.66	14d	6	0.95mi
1108 Patrick Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	24d	1	0.96mi
6916 Kizer Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,375	$1.26	24d	1	1.01mi
1267 Exeter Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,545	$1.26	14d	1	1.07mi
1274 Arailia Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,575	$1.28	24d	1	1.12mi
1222 Kienast Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,250	$1.11	22d	1	1.12mi
7311 Bass Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,495	$1.23	24d	1	1.14mi
7895 Burwell Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,575	$1.26	24d	1	1.14mi
8250 Cliffdale Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1405	$1,875	$1.33	24d	4	1.15mi
1338 Kienast Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,350	$1.24	24d	1	1.15mi
7817 Laura Ann Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,950	$1.68	14d	1	1.17mi
7805 Gallant Ridge Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,550	$1.08	24d	1	1.17mi
1366 Worstead Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,650	$1.53	14d	1	1.19mi
6764 Saint Julian Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,775	$1.46	24d	1	1.20mi
7903 Cliffdale Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	14d	2	1.26mi
6794 Saint Julian Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,800	$1.34	24d	1	1.29mi
1690 Clairborne Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1486	$1,900	$1.28	14d	1	1.33mi
7023 Salinas Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,495	$1.14	14d	1	1.33mi
7874 Barfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,600	$1.14	24d	1	1.35mi
4050 Bardstown Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	14d	1	1.42mi
1328 Butterwood Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,395	$1.07	24d	1	1.48mi
4010 Bardstown Ct Unit 202 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $189,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $199,900
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $203,000 Active
20. 2025-11-28
    historical $1,375
21. 2025-11-11
    price $1,375
22. 2025-10-16
    listed $1,500
23. 2023-11-20
    historical $1,350
24. 2023-10-20
    listed $1,350
25. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $62,500
26. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,834
• Household income: $62,249
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2511.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.20%
• Current HPI: 231.873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+214.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $203,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-11-28 Rental Removed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-20 Rental Removed $1,350 TMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,350 TMLS
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,332 · +42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.