2650 W Union Hills Dr #112 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 395 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition $42/sqft · 25% below area Est $53k · 25% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this adorable manufactured home in the sought-after Friendly Village of Orangewood! Offering 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and convenient carport parking. Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look flooring, large windows for abundant natural light, and neutral colors that go with any decor. The galley-style kitchen features ample cabinetry and counter space, as well as built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. The main bedroom is a true retreat, complete with a closet and a private ensuite for convenience. Enjoy your morning coffee on the covered patio and don't forget to visit this welcoming adult community's features, including the pool, spa, golf, media room, and clubhouse! Hurry up, this gem won't last!

Key facts

• Wood-look flooring
• Large windows
• Manufactured home

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• CARPORT PARKING
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Meadows Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 600 students, 54% FRL); Deer Valley Middle School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #105 of 218 statewide, top 49%, 537 students, 65% FRL); Barry Goldwater High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #147 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,641 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 21% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Deer Valley Unified District (4246) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.89%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,000
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -24.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #366	0.08mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	20mo	$73,900	$77	79
2650 W Union Hills Dr #29	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	12mo	$42,500	$47	75
2650 W Union Hills Dr #50	0.09mi	2/2.0	868 (-10%)	12mo	$40,500	$47	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #329	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (-7%)	18mo	$72,000	$80	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #169	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	9mo	$65,000	$62	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #230	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	18mo	$26,000	$25	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #245	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	15mo	$35,000	$42	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $32,115
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $68,748
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 108.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $45,250 ($49/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $674	+0% $660	+5% $646	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $613	+0% $660	+5% $707	+10% $754
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $670	base $660	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18410 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,262	$1.40	10d	1	0.28mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,398	$1.53	115d	4	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,398	$1.53	133d	4	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,650	$1.80	3d	5	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,550	$1.69	9d	6	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,518	$2.27	53d	1	0.46mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,495	$2.25	45d	1	0.46mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,471	$2.23	38d	1	0.46mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	691	$2,177	$3.15	48d	1	0.46mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,528	$1.54	1d	9	0.46mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	771	$1,567	$2.03	55d	1	0.46mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,546	$1.59	0d	96	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	895	$1,349	$1.51	119d	1	0.58mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,395	$1.59	0d	22	0.58mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	155d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	148d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	155d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	148d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	157d	1	0.79mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	184d	1	0.82mi
18626 N 34th Ave #2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	570	$1,595	$2.80	184d	1	0.82mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #256 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,395	$1.30	0d	1	0.83mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #256 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,497	$1.39	21d	1	0.83mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,408	$1.73	0d	25	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	184d	1	0.85mi
2209 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,000	$1.80	10d	1	0.86mi
2209 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,000	$1.80	20d	1	0.86mi
2015 W Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,345	$1.49	10d	5	0.90mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	580	$1,121	$1.93	140d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,120	$1.30	38d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	860	$1,298	$1.51	129d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,132	$1.83	162d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,243	$1.51	53d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$973	$1.57	83d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,341	$1.63	65d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,344	$1.64	17d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,365	$1.66	0d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,023	$1.65	127d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	822	$1,283	$1.56	40d	1	0.96mi
20003 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	620	$1,080	$1.74	6d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 395 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 394 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $39,900 Active 393 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $39,900 Active 392 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $39,900 Active 388 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 387 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $39,900 Active 386 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $39,900 Active 385 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $39,900 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $39,900 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $39,900 Active 382 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $39,900 Active 381 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $39,900 Active 380 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $39,900 Active 379 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $39,900 Active 378 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $39,900 Active 377 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $39,900 Active 376 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $39,900 Active 375 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $39,900 Active 374 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $39,900 Active 373 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $39,900 Active 372 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $39,900 Active 371 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $39,900 Active 370 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $39,900 Active 369 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $39,900 Active 368 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $39,900 Active 367 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $39,900 Active 366 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $39,900 Active 365 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 364 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 363 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $39,900 Active 362 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 361 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 360 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 359 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 358 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 357 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 356 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $39,900 Active 355 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $39,900 Active 354 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $39,900 Active 353 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $39,900 Active 352 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $39,900 Active 351 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $39,900 Active 350 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $39,900 Active 349 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $39,900 Active 348 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $39,900 Active 347 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $39,900 Active 346 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $39,900 Active 345 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $6,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,800–$14,400 screening

This manufactured home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Deer Valley Middle School F AZ #105/218 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Barry Goldwater High School F AZ #147/381 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $48,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $53,000 ARMLS