2712 Filbert Ln · Bowie, MD 20715

$390,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1963 9,360 sqft lot Est $496k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Please note with offers received and multiple calls about potential offers the seller has elected to have all Best and Final offers presented Monday 6/22 at 5:00 PM. Welcome to 2712 Filbert Ln in the sought-after Foxhill at Belair community of Bowie — a rare opportunity to create your dream home in one of Bowie’s most established and charming neighborhoods. Nestled atop a gentle hill on a quiet, tree-lined street, this home offers privacy, peaceful surroundings, and endless potential for the next owner with vision. This spacious fixer-upper with 5 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, features strong bones, a versatile layout, and valuable additions including a converted garage for ex

Key facts

• 9,360 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling and hot water; Natural gas heating
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Above-grade finished living area reported by assessor
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms total; Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Baseboard electric heating; Heat pump with gas backup; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#159 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tulip Grove Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #463 of 860 statewide, top 55%, 370 students, 39% FRL); Benjamin Tasker Middle School (math 11% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 1,044 students, 52% FRL); Bowie High (math 31% / reading 73%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 2,460 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $390k implies a 1245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,817 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $496,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12402 Skylark Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,276 (+8%)	8mo	$490,000	$215	58
12008 Terra Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,029 (-4%)	1mo	$500,000	$246	58
12402 Stafford Ln	0.61mi	5/2.5	2,352 (+11%)	2mo	$600,000	$255	51
12128 Long Ridge Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (+14%)	2mo	$540,000	$224	50
2810 Spindle Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,412 (+14%)	1mo	$545,000	$226	49
12403 Stafford Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (-11%)	1mo	$536,000	$286	48
12412 Shelter Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,829 (-13%)	6mo	$370,000	$202	48
2806 Folsom Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-12%)	7mo	$460,000	$248	46
12116 Long Ridge Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (+14%)	8mo	$610,000	$253	44
12402 Stretton Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (-11%)	2mo	$440,000	$235	43
12414 Sandal Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (+14%)	6mo	$550,000	$228	42
3012 Spark Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (+14%)	3mo	$480,000	$199	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-56,892
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-58,555
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20715

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,505/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $310	+0% $200	+5% $89	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $56	+0% $200	+5% $343	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $299	base $200	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14646 London Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	3.5	1800	$3,200	$1.78	20d	1	0.66mi
14803 London Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	3.5	1800	$3,500	$1.94	45d	1	0.70mi
2803 Barberry Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	1716	$3,400	$1.98	26d	1	0.82mi
3306 Moreland Pl Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	1895	$3,400	$1.79	0d	1	0.88mi
12604 Kemmerton Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,200	$2.28	46d	1	0.91mi
12718 Haskell Ln Bowie, MD	4.0	2.5	1872	$3,150	$1.68	17d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $390,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $390,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $390,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,505 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,505 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,505
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,483
• − Management: −$3,483
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$4,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $3,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #7194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowie, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 105,324
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 26,915
• Household income: $143,732
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -361.41%
• Current HPI: 302.4675
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1244.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $390,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1970-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,505 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.