408 Commanche Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$219,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1970 6,669 sqft lot $151/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated waterfront home offering a perfect blend of modern comfort and serene living. Enjoy peaceful water views from your backyard, creating a true retreat atmosphere. Features an open, inviting layout with stylish upgrades throughout—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Unwind with stunning sunsets and experience the privacy and natural beauty this property offers, all while being conveniently located near everything Conroe has to offer.

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Open inviting layout
• Conveniently located

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• OPEN INVITING LAYOUT
• PRIVACY AND NATURAL BEAUTY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,236 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,190
• List price: $219,400
• Delta: -0.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Navajo Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-3%)	1mo	$234,990	$167	78
517 Chickasaw Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-10%)	2mo	$229,900	$177	76
1006 Franconia Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-2%)	4mo	$225,000	$158	70
408 Pimmit Hill Run	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	0mo	$200,000	$154	65
705 Little River Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,365 (-6%)	4mo	$199,900	$146	62
119 Delaware Dr	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,350 (-7%)	5mo	$189,500	$140	61
109 Moonspinner	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+9%)	6mo	$225,000	$142	60
1014 Platte River Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-0%)	3mo	$164,000	$114	60
1007 W Cedar River Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+9%)	0mo	$275,000	$174	59
112 Quiet Wind Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+14%)	1mo	$258,000	$156	54
127 Golfview Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-15%)	2mo	$189,900	$153	51
89 Dawns Edge Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,609 (+11%)	3mo	$270,000	$168	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,193
• Equity at exit: $32,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,007
• Equity at exit: $18,970

Cash invested: $61,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $219,400

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,850
• Closing costs: $6,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	43d	1	0.45mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	43d	1	0.91mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.97mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	43d	1	1.01mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	1.04mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	43d	1	1.05mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.08mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	1d	1	1.13mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.19mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	1.19mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	43d	1	1.23mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	43d	1	1.23mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	43d	1	1.26mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	1.35mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	20d	1	1.41mi
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	18d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,400 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,400 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,400 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,400 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,400 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,400 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,400 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,400 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $219,400 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $229,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautifully updated waterfront home offering a perfect blend of modern comfort and serene living. Enjoy peaceful water views from your backyard, creating a true retreat atmosphere. Features an open, inviting layout with stylish upgrades throughout—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Unwind with stunning sunsets and experience the privacy and natural beauty this property offers, all while being conveniently located near everything Conroe has to offer.

16. 2026-04-11
    listed $239,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautifully updated waterfront home offering a perfect blend of modern comfort and serene living. Enjoy peaceful water views from your backyard, creating a true retreat atmosphere. Features an open, inviting layout with stylish upgrades throughout—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Unwind with stunning sunsets and experience the privacy and natural beauty this property offers, all while being conveniently located near everything Conroe has to offer.

17. 2026-01-08
    soldstatus
18. 2025-10-09
    historical $1,700
19. 2025-10-09
    historical
20. 2025-09-03
    price $199,999
21. 2025-08-22
    listed $1,700
22. 2025-07-10
    listed $217,000 Active
23. 2025-07-07
    historical
24. 2025-02-04
    listed $220,000 Active
25. 2024-04-18
    historical $1,500
26. 2024-03-20
    listed $1,500
27. 2024-03-20
    historical $1,390
28. 2024-02-24
    price $1,390
29. 2024-01-27
    price $1,500
30. 2024-01-19
    price $1,600
31. 2023-12-05
    listed $1,650
32. 2022-12-09
    historical
33. 2022-06-16
    historical
34. 2022-04-01
    listed $219,000 Active
35. 2021-06-29
    soldstatus
36. 2021-06-27
    status Pending
37. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2021-06-21
    status Option Pending
39. 2021-06-15
    status Active
40. 2021-06-12
    status Option Pending
41. 2021-06-08
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,015 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,403/yr (+$117/mo · 53.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$1,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$6,383
• Taxable loss: −$787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $2,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-20 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-20 Rental Removed $1,390 HARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $1,390 HARMLS
• 2024-01-27 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2022-12-09 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2022-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-08 Listed $99,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.