6542 Clairborne Ln · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$679,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,257 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,761 sqft lot Garage $208/sqft · 15% below area Est $801k · 15% under $393/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wake up to wide-open lake views and end your day with unforgettable Florida sunsets—right from your own backyard in Polo Run at Lakewood Ranch. This 5-bedroom, 3-bath Monte Carlo floor plan offers over 3,200 square feet of open, functional space designed for real life and easy entertaining. The heart of the home is a spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances that flows effortlessly into the main living and dining areas, all positioned to take advantage of the water views. Upstairs and down, the layout gives you flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the 3-car tandem garage provides plenty of room for storage and toys.

Key facts

• 6,761 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• MONTE CARLO FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• BREATHTAKING SUNSET LAKE VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $679k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $598k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $569k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $569k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,691/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($598k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $569,106 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $801,356
• List price: $679,000
• Delta: -15.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6535 Clairborne Ln	0.04mi	5/3.0	3,257 (0%)	15mo	$735,000	$226	86
17335 Polo Trl	0.20mi	5/3.0	3,520 (+8%)	13mo	$760,000	$216	66
17923 Polo Trl	0.22mi	5/4.5	3,374 (+4%)	14mo	$817,500	$242	66
17523 Polo Trl	0.17mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,520 (+8%)	23mo	$906,000	$257	54
6604 189th St E	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,100 (-5%)	19mo	$1,475,000	$476	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-155,521
• Equity at exit: $101,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-236,304
• Equity at exit: $58,708

Cash invested: $190,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $840,000 ($281/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -12.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,561
• Tax from tax record: −$716 /mo · $8,587/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$393
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,269

Max offer price $598,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-264	+0% $-456	+5% $-648	+10% $-841
Rent	-10% $-906	-5% $-681	+0% $-456	+5% $-231	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-284	base $-456	+0.5pp $-632	+1.0pp $-811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,750
• Closing costs: $20,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6523 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	3257	$6,500	$2.00	65d	1	0.05mi
17006 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$3,495	$1.38	119d	1	0.67mi
6236 Baywood Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	5.0	3.0	2638	$3,500	$1.33	0d	1	1.20mi
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	119d	1	1.31mi
5528 Arnie Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2872	$10,000	$3.48	119d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: CDD assessed on property
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association approval required)Monthly HOA approximately $393.67Quarterly association fee listedAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, pickleball courts, playground, gated community, maintenance, and recreational facilitiesPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage3 garage spaces (21x38)Tandem configurationDrivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable connectedSprinkler recycledWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsProperty faces eastLocated in a planned development (PD-R)Lake view
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationBuilt by Lennar (Monte Carlo model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shuttersSidewalkSliding doorsLandscaped lotPaved lotIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Ceiling fansCrown moldingIn-wall pest systemKitchen/family room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsSplit bedroom planThermostatWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with gas dryer hookupWasherDryer

HOA detail $393/mo · $4,716/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-21
   days on market $679,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-08-20
   days on market $679,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-08-19
   days on market $679,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-08-18
   days on market $679,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-08-17
   days on market $679,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-08-16
   days on market $679,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-08-15
   days on market $679,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-08-14
   days on market $679,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-08-13
   days on market $679,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-08-12
    days on market $679,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-08-12
    price $679,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-08-11
    days on market $699,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-08-10
    days on market $699,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-08-09
    days on market $699,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-08-08
    days on market $699,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-08-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-08-06
    days on market $699,000 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-08-05
    days on market $699,000 Active 114 DOM
19. 2026-08-04
    days on market $699,000 Active 113 DOM
20. 2026-08-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 112 DOM
21. 2026-07-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-07-30
    days on market $699,000 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-07-28
    days on market $699,000 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-07-24
    days on market $699,000 Active 102 DOM
25. 2026-07-23
    days on market $699,000 Active 101 DOM
26. 2026-07-22
    days on market $699,000 Active 100 DOM
27. 2026-07-21
    days on market $699,000 Active 99 DOM
28. 2026-07-18
    days on market $699,000 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-07-18
    days on market $699,000 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-07-16
    days on market $699,000 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-07-15
    days on market $699,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-07-14
    days on market $699,000 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-07-13
    days on market $699,000 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-07-13
    days on market $699,000 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-07-11
    days on market $699,000 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-07-10
    days on market $699,000 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-07-09
    days on market $699,000 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-07-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-07-06
    days on market $699,000 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-07-05
    days on market $699,000 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-07-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-07-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 80 DOM
43. 2026-07-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 79 DOM
44. 2026-06-30
    days on market $699,000 Active 78 DOM
45. 2026-06-29
    days on market $699,000 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-06-28
    days on market $699,000 Active 76 DOM
47. 2026-06-27
    days on market $699,000 Active 75 DOM
48. 2026-06-27
    days on market $699,000 Active 74 DOM
49. 2026-06-25
    days on market $699,000 Active 72 DOM
50. 2026-06-22
    days on market $699,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,587 · $716/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,587 · $716/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,035
• − Property taxes: −$8,587
• − Insurance: −$3,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,463
• − Management: −$5,463
• − HOA: −$4,716
• − Depreciation: −$19,753
• Taxable loss: −$17,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Polo Run at Lakewood Ranch offers spacious living areas, modern amenities, and stunning lake views. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Solar panel maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the solar panels continue to reduce energy costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: CDD assessed on property
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association approval required)Monthly HOA approximately $393.67Quarterly association fee listedAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, pickleball courts, playground, gated community, maintenance, and recreational facilitiesPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage3 garage spaces (21x38)Tandem configurationDrivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedCable connectedSprinkler recycledWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsProperty faces eastLocated in a planned development (PD-R)Lake view
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationBuilt by Lennar (Monte Carlo model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shuttersSidewalkSliding doorsLandscaped lotPaved lotIrrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Ceiling fansCrown moldingIn-wall pest systemKitchen/family room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsSplit bedroom planThermostatWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with gas dryer hookupWasherDryer

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $699,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $709,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $719,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $739,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $759,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,587 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.