15660 W Jasper Way · Surprise, AZ 85374

$499,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,983 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1998 0.28 ac lot $167/sqft · 20% below area Est $621k · 20% under $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

Key facts

• Roll out shelving
• Media center
• Large kitchen

Tags

• GUEST BEDROOM ENSUITE
• MEDIA CENTER
• LARGE KITCHEN
• MAPLE CABINETS
• ROLL OUT SHELVING
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,516/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1120% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $116k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $229k; list at $499k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,610 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $621,233
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -19.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15514 W Lantana Way	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,779 (-7%)	7mo	$739,000	$266	58
20369 N Painted Sky Dr	0.17mi	2/2.5	2,732 (-8%)	18mo	$640,000	$234	57
15749 W Clear Canyon Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,779 (-7%)	6mo	$785,000	$282	42
15270 W Morningtree Dr	0.67mi	2/2.5	2,602 (-13%)	0mo	$681,000	$262	41
20041 N Cielo Ct	0.62mi	2/2.5	2,539 (-15%)	2mo	$705,000	$278	39
19842 N Hidden Ridge Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,539 (-15%)	6mo	$637,000	$251	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-123,243
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-187,474
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,639/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$738
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,162

Max offer price $408,854

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	43d	1	0.94mi
21718 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2810	$5,500	$1.96	24d	1	0.98mi
15185 W Via Manana Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2900	$2,195	$0.76	43d	1	1.22mi
20470 N Date Palm Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	3389	$4,250	$1.25	43d	1	1.35mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	43d	1	1.41mi
15178 W Corral Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2262	$3,500	$1.55	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

2. 2026-05-15
   price $499,000 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $535,000 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

4. 2026-02-27
   status Active 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

5. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

6. 2026-01-07
   price $579,000 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

7. 2025-12-05
   listed $615,000 Active 805-char remark

   Show marketing remark (805 chars)

   Great Estate floorplan 2 bed 3 bath home w/a den. The guest bedroom is an ensuite. The 3rd bath has entry from the den. Vaulted Ceilings, with beams & Crown molding through much of the home.. The large kitchen has maple cabinets, Roll out shelving and quartz counter tops. There is a media center in the great room that can stay w/the home. Large master suite w/a bay window, Double Closets and ceiling fan. The master bath has separate snail shower, soaker tub & double vanity. The laundry is very large w/cabinets, sink and a upright freezer. The 2.75 car extended garage has epoxy painted floors, built in cabinets, wash sink. The backyard has huge extended covered patio and very mature landscaping. This Home is Virtually Staged. Roof underlayment replaced 2025. Solar lease $143.65 a month.

8. 1998-06-11
   soldstatus $228,923

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$3,639
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,375
• − Management: −$3,375
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$15,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+118.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $499,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $535,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $579,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $615,000 ARMLS
• 1998-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $228,923 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,639 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.