523 Shenandoah Dr · Sugar Land, TX 77469

$239,786

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1981 7,209 sqft lot $158/sqft · 20% above area Est $236k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Near schools
• Landscaped backyard

Tags

• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• COZY FIREPLACE
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Velasquez (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 497 students, 57% FRL); Reading J H (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,588 students, 28% FRL); George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,273 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,279
• List price: $239,786
• Delta: 1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 Shenandoah Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-3%)	2mo	$225,000	$153	86
6915 Kearney Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,517 (0%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	85
7126 Sharpsburg Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+4%)	4mo	$242,000	$153	76
6918 Gettysburg Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+7%)	1mo	$239,000	$147	74
627 Stonewall Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,419 (-6%)	2mo	$235,000	$166	73
6724 Pickett Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-4%)	2mo	$250,000	$171	71
218 Tara Plantation Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+4%)	3mo	$235,000	$149	69
6731 Gettysburg Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+7%)	2mo	$254,900	$157	67
213 Willoughby Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-3%)	2mo	$244,880	$167	57
6930 Kearney Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-14%)	1mo	$219,999	$169	56
7226 Buchanan Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (+15%)	1mo	$269,990	$155	51
6603 Harpers Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+14%)	3mo	$255,000	$147	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,871
• Equity at exit: $35,753

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-61,410
• Equity at exit: $20,732

Cash invested: $67,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,257
• Tax from tax record: −$386 /mo · $4,630/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,223

Max offer price $239,786

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $91	+0% $23	+5% $-44	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-66	+0% $23	+5% $112	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $84	base $23	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,946
• Closing costs: $7,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6826 Blue Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,769	$1.12	45d	1	0.30mi
6915 Renfro Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,745	$1.15	22d	1	0.38mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Richmond, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,550	$2.27	0d	16	1.37mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 5233 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,429	$1.61	45d	1	1.39mi
5200 Pointe West Cir Unit 3174 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,306	$1.53	18d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,786 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   status Active 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

4. 2026-04-09
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

5. 2026-04-04
   status Active 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

6. 2026-03-08
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

7. 2026-03-04
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

8. 2026-02-11
   listed $239,786 Active 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home boasts modern amenities and a spacious layout. The property features a beautifully landscaped backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining. With updated appliances and a cozy fireplace, this home offers comfort and style. Located near schools, parks, and shopping, it provides convenience for everyday living. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a lovely home in a great location.

9. 2018-03-07
   historical
10. 2018-02-26
    historical
11. 2018-02-01
    listed $178,888 Active
12. 2018-01-26
    price $189,786
13. 2017-09-20
    price $199,786
14. 2017-07-11
    listed $178,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,630 · $386/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,630 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,432
• − Property taxes: −$4,630
• − Insurance: −$1,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,976
• Taxable loss: −$3,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $1,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $239,786 HARMLS
• 2018-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-02-01 Listed $178,888 HARMLS
• 2018-01-26 Price Changed $189,786 HARMLS
• 2017-09-20 Price Changed $199,786 HARMLS
• 2017-07-11 Listed $178,888 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,630 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.