The Summerfield (865) Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$321,090

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Walk-in closet
• Game room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $321,090 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,723.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,417 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,723
• List price: $321,090
• Delta: -14.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Bay Bridge Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,284 (+5%)	3mo	$314,220	$138	77
17708 Mill Manor Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,067 (-5%)	3mo	$298,920	$145	76
217 Raine Manor Ct	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+4%)	3mo	$322,560	$142	76
17716 Mill Manor Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+4%)	5mo	$333,070	$147	75
17744 Mill Mnr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+4%)	2mo	$356,610	$157	75
220 Raine Manor Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,284 (+5%)	2mo	$330,900	$145	74
228 Raine Manor Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+4%)	3mo	$346,510	$153	74
17881 Stone Terrace Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	1mo	$279,990	$128	72
17908 Stone Terrace Pl	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,180 (0%)	4mo	$288,990	$133	66
11 Villas Ways Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (+7%)	1mo	$935,000	$400	49
314 Bayshore Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,383 (+9%)	2mo	$940,000	$394	47
1182 Oak Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,457 (+13%)	5mo	$399,900	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-108,518
• Equity at exit: $56,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-172,114
• Equity at exit: $32,486

Cash invested: $105,202 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,636/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,287

Max offer price $281,690

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-390	-5% $-520	+0% $-650	+5% $-780	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-845	-5% $-747	+0% $-650	+5% $-553	+10% $-455
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-554	base $-650	+0.5pp $-747	+1.0pp $-846

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,931
• Closing costs: $11,272
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	45d	1	0.31mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	45d	1	0.75mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.85mi
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	14d	1	0.88mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	45d	1	1.00mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $321,090 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $321,090 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $321,090 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $331,090 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $331,090 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $331,090 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $331,090 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $341,090 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,090 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $341,090 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $341,090 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $341,090 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,090 Active 375 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,090 Active 374 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,090 Active 373 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $339,090 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $334,090 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

18. 2026-04-24
    price $340,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

19. 2026-04-23
    price $334,090 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

20. 2026-04-15
    price $340,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

21. 2026-04-11
    price $279,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

22. 2026-04-09
    price $278,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

23. 2026-04-02
    price $287,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

24. 2026-04-01
    price $284,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

25. 2026-03-20
    price $289,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

26. 2026-03-18
    price $300,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

27. 2026-03-08
    price $299,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

28. 2026-03-04
    price $317,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

29. 2026-02-20
    price $315,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

30. 2026-01-29
    price $313,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

31. 2025-12-30
    price $340,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

32. 2025-12-19
    price $288,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

33. 2025-12-18
    price $308,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

34. 2025-12-14
    price $316,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

35. 2025-12-03
    price $309,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

36. 2025-10-31
    price $314,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

37. 2025-09-09
    price $329,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

38. 2025-07-24
    price $334,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

39. 2025-07-15
    price $341,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

40. 2025-06-24
    price $344,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

41. 2025-05-29
    price $352,990 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

42. 2025-05-23
    listed $336,990 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Decide what to wear in the expansive walk-in closet of the primary suite. The open concept family and dining are perfect for hosting your favorite meals. Upstairs, the kids will love their own oasis in the game room and secondary bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,046
• − Property taxes: −$5,636
• − Insurance: −$1,879
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$10,930
• Taxable loss: −$14,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $339,090 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $334,090 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $334,090 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Listed $336,990 Zillow