303 77th St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2005 8,400 sqft lot $86/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready 4 Bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a charming brick exterior and a 1-car garage. Step inside to find a thoughtfully updated interior with newer carpet and modern finishes throughout. The spacious layout offers comfortable living with a bright living area and generously sized bedrooms. Pride of ownership shows in every corner of this well-cared-for home.

Key facts

• 8,400 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-781/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,855 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,125
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 19.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $19,780
• Equity at exit: $83,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $73,786
• Equity at exit: $129,960

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,473/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $168,407

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	13d	1	0.30mi
7715 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	21d	1	0.36mi
7717 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,899	$1.33	13d	1	0.36mi
7702 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	0.36mi
1113 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.64mi
1115 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.65mi
1625 79th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.02mi
7006 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	1.10mi
1816 75th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1516	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	1.12mi
1927 71st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,600	$0.89	21d	1	1.22mi
1915 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1911	$1,550	$0.81	13d	1	1.22mi
1923 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,699	$1.05	43d	1	1.27mi
1940 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	43d	1	1.36mi
1923 67th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,525	$1.04	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    listed $179,900 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Move-In Ready 4 Bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a charming brick exterior and a 1-car garage. Step inside to find a thoughtfully updated interior with newer carpet and modern finishes throughout. The spacious layout offers comfortable living with a bright living area and generously sized bedrooms. Pride of ownership shows in every corner of this well-cared-for home.

18. 2025-09-27
    historical $1,610
19. 2025-09-02
    price $1,610
20. 2025-08-31
    listed $1,399
21. 2024-10-17
    historical $1,399
22. 2024-10-11
    price $1,399
23. 2024-09-29
    price $1,449
24. 2024-09-13
    listed $1,499
25. 2024-09-07
    historical $1,499
26. 2024-09-05
    historical $1,499
27. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,499
28. 2024-08-22
    listed $1,499
29. 2017-11-03
    soldstatus
30. 2017-11-02
    soldstatus 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    4/3/2 brick home. New paint, carpet, range, microwave, & lighting.

31. 2017-09-10
    listed $109,000 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    4/3/2 brick home. New paint, carpet, range, microwave, & lighting.

32. 2006-02-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,473 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,473 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,473
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $179,900 LARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Rental Removed $1,610 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $1,610 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-08-31 Listed for Rent $1,399 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-17 Rental Removed $1,399 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $1,399 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $1,449 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $1,499 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-07 Rental Removed $1,499 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Rental Removed $1,499 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,499 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,499 SHOWMOJO
• 2017-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-02 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-09-10 Listed $109,000 LARMLS
• 2006-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,473 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.