71756 Spike Dr · Covington, LA 70447

$215,845

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot $202/sqft · at area comps Est $215k · at est. $112/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * LOCATED ON A GARDEN LOT! This RYAN II M has an open floor plan with upgraded cabinets, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in primary bedroom & more. Special plan interior features: granite counters, stainless appliances, kitchen island, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, walk-in closet in primary suite & much more! Energy Efficient Features: Low E Tilt-in windows, radiant barrier roof decking, high efficiency HVAC & electric heat pump, R-15 wall insulation & R-38 attic insulation & the list goes on!

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Free refrigerator
• New construction

Tags

• FREE REFRIGERATOR
• WINDOW BLINDS
• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GARDEN LOT
• GRANITE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($168/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph B. Lancaster Elementary School (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B+, #38 of 646 statewide, top 6%, 1,505 students, 21% FRL); Madisonville Junior High School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #28 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 655 students, 21% FRL); Mandeville High School (math 59% / reading 63%, grade C+, #19 of 265 statewide, top 7%, 2,259 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 40% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,769 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,535
• List price: $215,845
• Delta: 0.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71768 Spike Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,067 (0%)	1mo	$215,240	$202	98
71732 Spike Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,067 (0%)	0mo	$215,165	$202	98
71736 Spike Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,067 (0%)	1mo	$215,127	$202	97
71724 Spike Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,067 (0%)	2mo	$219,907	$206	95
71720 Spike Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	2mo	$216,096	$196	90
71772 Spike Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-6%)	1mo	$205,061	$205	88
71712 Spike Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	4mo	$215,691	$195	87
71704 Spike Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-6%)	0mo	$205,040	$205	85
71604 Spike Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,021 (-4%)	2mo	$211,130	$207	85
71784 Spike Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-6%)	4mo	$206,343	$206	85
71572 Spike Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-6%)	3mo	$208,223	$208	81
71672 Spike Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-6%)	4mo	$206,158	$206	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,984
• Equity at exit: $32,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,037
• Equity at exit: $18,662

Cash invested: $60,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70447

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,238/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,030

Max offer price $215,845

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $89	+0% $14	+5% $-61	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-67	+0% $14	+5% $95	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $69	base $14	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,961
• Closing costs: $6,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71772 Spike Dr Madisonville, LA	3.0	2.0	1001	$1,800	$1.80	5d	1	0.03mi
71736 Spike Dr Madisonville, LA	3.0	2.0	1067	$1,550	$1.45	25d	1	0.05mi
126 Scott St Madisonville, LA	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	22d	1	1.44mi
118 Poe St Madisonville, LA	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr
• Likely covers: electricinternet

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $215,845 Active 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   * 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * LOCATED ON A GARDEN LOT! This RYAN II M has an open floor plan with upgraded cabinets, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in primary bedroom & more. Special plan interior features: granite counters, stainless appliances, kitchen island, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, walk-in closet in primary suite & much more! Energy Efficient Features: Low E Tilt-in windows, radiant barrier roof decking, high efficiency HVAC & electric heat pump, R-15 wall insulation & R-38 attic insulation & the list goes on!

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $215,845 Active 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   Awesome builder rate + FREE front gutters OR window blinds(restrictions apply)! Brand NEW Construction in DEER CROSSING built by DSLD HOMES! LOCATED ON A GARDEN LOT! This RYAN II M has an open floor plan with upgraded cabinets, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in primary bedroom & more. Special plan interior features: granite counters, stainless appliances, kitchen island, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, walk-in closet in primary suite & much more! Energy Efficient Features: Low E Tilt-in windows, radiant barrier roof decking, high efficiency HVAC & electric heat pump, R-15 wall insulation & R-38 attic insulation & the list goes on!

3. 2026-04-13
   listed $215,845 Active 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   Awesome builder rate + FREE front gutters OR window blinds(restrictions apply)! Brand NEW Construction in DEER CROSSING built by DSLD HOMES! LOCATED ON A GARDEN LOT! This RYAN II M has an open floor plan with upgraded cabinets, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in primary bedroom & more. Special plan interior features: granite counters, stainless appliances, kitchen island, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, walk-in closet in primary suite & much more! Energy Efficient Features: Low E Tilt-in windows, radiant barrier roof decking, high efficiency HVAC & electric heat pump, R-15 wall insulation & R-38 attic insulation & the list goes on!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,238
• − Insurance: −$1,079
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$6,279
• Taxable loss: −$3,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with upgraded features and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and energy-efficient upgrades would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 17,897
• Household income: $122,574
• Rent vs Own: 4.0% rent · 96.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 19% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.07%
• Current HPI: 174.0804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $215,845 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Listed $215,845 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $215,845 GSREIN