1823 Hilton Head Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1977 7,326 sqft lot $97/sqft · 27% below area Est $273k · 27% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a large, picturesque Quail Valley lot w/ beautiful mature surroundings & attractive curb appeal, this unique 2-story property offers an exciting opportunity for buyers with a vision. Featuring 2,058sqft, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, formal dining or additional living room, & a 2-car garage, the home showcases distinctive architectural character & an uncommon floor plan full of potential! While the property does require interior & exterior cosmetic improvements, the opportunity is significant. With good architectural bones, spacious living areas, & a convenient location within an established golf course community, this home is ready to be transformed int

Key facts

• Uncommon floor plan
• Convenient location
• 7,326 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE PICTURESQUE LOT
• UNCOMMON FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY FEATURES POOL
• COMMUNITY FEATURES PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Thunderbird North Community Assoc); Association amenities include pool and tennis courts; Annual association fee of $188; Community features include curbs and golf access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1977; Living area approximately 2,058
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Tennis courts; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14x15); Two additional bedrooms on second floor (13x12 and 12x11)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Double vanity in bath; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub/shower; One fireplace; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,683
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -26.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,030 (-1%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	92
1858 Hilton Head Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-10%)	6mo	$189,000	$102	65
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-6%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	56
3234 Cherry Springs Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,292 (+11%)	4mo	$238,500	$104	56
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-4%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	55
3519 Telford Ln Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,165 (+5%)	2mo	$345,000	$159	54
3434 Harper Meadow Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,147 (+4%)	5mo	$355,000	$165	54
2818 Eaglerock Cir	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,146 (+4%)	2mo	$289,000	$135	54
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,881 (-9%)	1mo	$327,000	$174	52
1927 S Bend Cir	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,985 (-4%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	51
3626 Telford Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+13%)	0mo	$365,000	$157	45
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-11%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,824
• Equity at exit: $41,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $548
• Equity at exit: $38,852

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,592/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2010 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2651	$2,695	$1.02	43d	1	0.34mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	0.46mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	43d	1	0.48mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.56mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	0.67mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	16d	1	0.69mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	43d	1	0.72mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	43d	1	0.76mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.92mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	20d	1	1.05mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	17d	1	1.08mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	43d	1	1.29mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	12d	1	1.30mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	20d	1	1.33mi
1935 Poco Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2868	$2,326	$0.81	22d	1	1.33mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $200,000 Pending 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,500 Pending 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $207,500 Pending 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $207,500 Pending 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    listed $217,500 Active 1003-char remark
11. 2026-04-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,592 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,592 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,592
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $3,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $207,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $217,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,592 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.