1102 Woods Dr · Liberty, TX 77575

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1970 6,551 sqft lot $107/sqft · 17% below area Est $204k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1585 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 1102 Woods Dr, Liberty, TX 77575.

Key facts

• 6,551 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 130 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($487/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 4233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,013
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -17.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1205 Jarrett St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$197	76
2422 Hollywood Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	9mo	$250,000	$154	67
2418 Hollywood Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+7%)	1mo	$255,000	$151	67
1805 Willow St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+2%)	2mo	$214,999	$133	62
1313 Cos St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+3%)	1mo	$227,500	$139	62
2418 Centennial St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-4%)	6mo	$279,999	$184	61
2305 Beaumont Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-8%)	2mo	$105,000	$72	59
916 Woods Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,786 (+13%)	8mo	$235,000	$132	58
1707 N San Jacinto St	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,464 (-8%)	8mo	$183,000	$125	54
2000 Adams St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+7%)	13mo	$210,000	$124	52
1827 N San Jacinto	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+8%)	11mo	$289,000	$169	49
2422 Centennial St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-15%)	7mo	$185,000	$137	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,742
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,983
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,181/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Woods Dr Liberty, TX	2.0	2.0	1236	$1,575	$1.27	12d	1	0.05mi
3304 Lincoln St Liberty, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,850	$1.07	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $3,900
16. 2026-03-12
    historical $3,900
17. 2026-02-07
    listed $169,000 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    This 1585 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 1102 Woods Dr, Liberty, TX 77575.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-08
    listed $3,900
20. 2025-06-26
    historical $3,900
21. 2025-05-18
    price $200,000
22. 2024-10-11
    listed $3,900
23. 2024-06-24
    listed $169,000 Active
24. 2020-08-11
    soldstatus
25. 2019-12-27
    historical
26. 2019-12-24
    listed $129,000 Active
27. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus
28. 1991-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,181
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed for Rent $3,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Rental Removed $3,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $3,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $3,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listed for Rent $3,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-24 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,181 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.