216 Independence Ave #15 · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$177,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1971 6,003 sqft lot Est $240k · 26% under $110/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Beautiful 2br-2ba in Lake Tarpon Village. .. 2023 air and heat. .. ready to move in. .. .active 55+community. .. low maint fee 110 monthly. .. clubhouse w/ heated pool. .. rec area. .. access to beautiful Lake Tarpon. .. must see. .. .

Key facts

• Rec area
• 6,003 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE W HEATED POOL
• REC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,104 sq ft (public records); Building area reported as 2,056 sq ft (public records)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association: BETH) with required approval; Monthly association fee of $110; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, pickleball courts, shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, storage; Association fees cover common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, management, private road, recreational facilities, trash; Senior community; Deed restrictions; golf carts allowed; street lights; association recreation owned; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.14-acre lot (approx. 62 x 96)
• Exterior features: Awnings; Asphalt/paved road; Road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Window treatments; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $178k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,525 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,568
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Independence Ave #20	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-2%)	15mo	$235,000	$217	74
65 Harbor Way #21	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	2mo	$236,000	$192	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,876
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,519
• Equity at exit: $15,347

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,599/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,685

Max offer price $177,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Delaware Ct #10 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	19d	1	0.11mi
245 Lake Tarpon Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	1d	1	0.12mi
274 Beach Ct #42 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	24d	1	0.25mi
21 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,895	$2.02	4d	1	0.26mi
218 Maple Ave Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,600	$1.89	17d	1	0.29mi
65 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	868	$1,700	$1.96	17d	1	0.36mi
36090 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,557	$2.44	2d	66	0.41mi
72 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	17d	1	0.43mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit C1 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,781	$1.98	4d	1	0.48mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit B1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,245	$2.01	4d	1	0.48mi
35820 U.S. 19 Unit A2 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,884	$2.55	4d	1	0.48mi
3277 Fox Chase Cir N #211 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$1,495	$1.81	24d	1	0.57mi
36750 US Highway 19 N Unit 19-115 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$2,150	$2.61	3d	1	0.64mi
2400 Clubside Ct Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,940	$1.72	1d	39	0.64mi
3300 Fox Chase Cir N Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$2,125	$2.35	1d	2	0.65mi
2481 Malcolm Dr Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1319	$2,600	$1.97	17d	1	0.74mi
3121 Beecher Dr E Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	976	$2,100	$2.15	7d	1	0.76mi
3023 Beecher Dr E Unit D Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1425	$2,400	$1.68	17d	1	0.78mi
2141 Portofino Pl Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,510	$2.16	24d	2	0.84mi
2199 Chianti Pl Unit 9-0923 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,300	$2.23	24d	1	0.86mi
2200 Tuscany Trce #15 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	24d	1	0.86mi
2139 Chianti Pl Unit 154 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,700	$2.05	24d	1	0.86mi
2151 Chianti Pl Unit 127 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,700	$1.57	23d	1	0.86mi
2249 Portofino Pl #2221 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	13d	1	0.88mi
2945 Grovewood Blvd Unit A Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	17d	1	0.88mi
2218 Portofino Pl #247 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1050	$1,895	$1.80	17d	1	0.90mi
2139 Chianti Pl Unit 15-0153 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,823	$1.49	3d	1	0.93mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,850	$1.80	3d	1	0.93mi
2130 Bancroft Pl Unit E Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,860	$1.81	7d	1	0.93mi
2176 Portofino Pl Unit 26-026 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,600	$1.93	24d	1	0.93mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-202 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,800	$2.87	24d	1	0.94mi
2587 Cyprus Dr Unit 3-214 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	825	$2,000	$2.42	24d	1	0.94mi
2571 Cyprus Dr Unit 1-101 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	755	$1,900	$2.52	21d	1	0.94mi
2171 Portofino Pl #2727 Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	24d	1	0.95mi
2107 Portofino Pl Unit 30-3014 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,150	$1.59	3d	1	1.01mi
2107 Portofino Pl Unit 30-302 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,500	$2.42	7d	1	1.01mi
2107 Portofino Pl Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$2,250	$2.13	3d	2	1.01mi
3266 Haviland Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,895	$1.57	24d	1	1.07mi
2350 Cypress Pond Rd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,670	$2.11	1d	54	1.08mi
2334 Citrus Hill Rd Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,350	$1.98	3d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-24
   listed $177,500 Active
3. 2018-02-12
   soldstatus $100,000
4. 2014-08-27
   soldstatus $55,000
5. 2004-07-01
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 2000-07-05
   soldstatus $57,000
7. 1985-07-01
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$2,599
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable income: $208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+222.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $177,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,599 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.