1207 E Aralia Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$115,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition Est $130k · 11% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Kingman Ranch, one of Kingman's most sought-after 55+ communities. This beautifully maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable, light-filled living in a park that truly has it all, including a large, heated pool, hot tub, clubhouse, billiards room, and a packed calendar of community activities, all set among mature trees. The space rent of $515 a month, covers water, sewer, and trash, keeping things simple. A darling covered front patio sets the tone the moment you arrive, offering the perfect shaded spot to sip your morning coffee or wind down in the evening. Step inside to an open floor plan that feels bright and airy thanks to plenty of large windows. The kitchen is

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Hot tub
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LARGE HEATED POOL
• HOT TUB
• CLUBHOUSE
• BILLIARDS ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community clubhouse; Sidewalks; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volt electric service; Natural gas available; Paved road access (private maintained road)
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; Entry includes breakfast bar and ceiling fan(s)
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shed; Has a view; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Solid surface counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window coverings; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,161 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 Aralia Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	3mo	$68,900	$65	84
1296 E Citrus Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,054 (-4%)	4mo	$116,000	$110	82
1130 E Suffock Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,063 (-3%)	3mo	$99,000	$93	76
4945 N Sierra Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	2mo	$185,000	$157	70
5178 N Edie Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	980 (-11%)	2mo	$115,900	$118	66
1116 E Birch	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	0mo	$112,000	$90	66
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5	980 (-11%)	1mo	$154,900	$158	66
4819 N Casey Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,059 (-4%)	10mo	$155,000	$146	60
925 E John Norman Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	3mo	$129,900	$104	56
1535 E Potter Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+13%)	0mo	$165,000	$133	54
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	6mo	$147,000	$153	54
1200 E Potter Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	938 (-15%)	6mo	$105,000	$112	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,507
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,179
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2658 E Punta Vista Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,700	$1.41	44d	1	1.10mi
2381 E Butler Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	1.33mi
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	44d	1	1.46mi
2995 E Ames Ave Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,250	$1.02	44d	1	1.46mi
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $115,900 Active
18. 2026-05-12
    status Active
19. 2026-02-27
    price $122,000
20. 2026-02-12
    price $125,000
21. 2026-01-24
    price $129,000
22. 2025-08-19
    price $132,000
23. 2025-07-20
    price $135,500
24. 2025-06-24
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $1,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$336
• After-tax cash flow: $2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable 55+ community offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom vanity — Needs cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn bathroom vanity — New vanity enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom vanity · Needs cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn bathroom vanity — New vanity enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $115,900 WARDEX
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $122,000 WARDEX
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $129,000 WARDEX
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $132,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $135,500 WARDEX
• 2025-06-24 Listed $139,900 WARDEX