Is 1207 E Aralia Dr in New Kingman-Butler, AZ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 6.9% cap rate and $58/mo modeled cash flow at a $109,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1207 E Aralia Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,035/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 45.82

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +15.6/30.0
ARV discount +12.0/15.0
DSCR +5.0/10.0
1% rule +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Schools +1.0/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -4.0

$109,900

1207 E Aralia Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 122 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2017 Good condition $100/sqft · 10% below area Est $122k · 10% under ↓ 17% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Kingman Ranch, one of Kingman's most sought-after 55+ communities. This beautifully maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable, light-filled living in a park that truly has it all, including a large, heated pool, hot tub, clubhouse, billiards room, and a packed calendar of community activities, all set among mature trees. The space rent of $515 a month, covers water, sewer, and trash, keeping things simple. A darling covered front patio sets the tone the moment you arrive, offering the perfect shaded spot to sip your morning coffee or wind down in the evening. Step inside to an open floor plan that feels bright and airy thanks to plenty of large windows.

Key facts

Open floor plan
Hot tub
Clubhouse

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($698/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (5.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 952 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 6.93%
Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
DSCR: 1.10
GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $122,000
List price: $109,900
Delta: -9.92%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1296 E Citrus Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,054 (-4%)	0mo	$105,500	$100	85
1200 Aralia Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	6mo	$68,900	$65	82
1130 E Suffock Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,063 (-3%)	6mo	$99,000	$93	74
4945 N Sierra Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	5mo	$185,000	$157	67
5178 N Edie Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	980 (-11%)	5mo	$115,900	$118	64
1116 E Birch	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	4mo	$112,000	$90	64
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5	980 (-11%)	4mo	$154,900	$158	63
925 E John Norman Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	6mo	$129,900	$104	53
5006 Steinke Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,230 (+12%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	53
1535 E Potter Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+13%)	3mo	$165,000	$133	51
2085 E Packard Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	1mo	$149,900	$156	46
2110 E Packard Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5	937 (-15%)	3mo	$128,000	$137	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -15.7%
Equity multiple: 0.45×
Total profit: $-16,794
Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

IRR: -12.8%
Equity multiple: 0.34×
Total profit: $-20,323
Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 12 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $110,500 ($115/sqft)
Median days on market: 81 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86409

Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 952
Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,035 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$576
Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
Insurance: −$46
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $96	+0% $58	+5% $20	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $17	+0% $58	+5% $99	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $86	base $58	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $27,475
Closing costs: $3,297
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2570 E Ames Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	1.0	728	$900	$1.24	6d	1	1.07mi
2635 E Punta Vista Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,648	$1.10	6d	1	1.08mi
2658 E Punta Vista Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,700	$1.41	139d	1	1.10mi
2420 E John L Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$630	$0.60	6d	1	1.25mi
2381 E Butler Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	139d	1	1.33mi
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	139d	1	1.46mi
2995 E Ames Ave Kingman, AZ	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,250	$1.02	140d	1	1.46mi
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	139d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Land is leased
HOA & community: Community poolClubhouseSidewalksSenior communityPets allowed

Exterior

Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer220-volt electricNatural gas availablePrivate maintained paved road
Home design: Manufactured home (double wide)Residential property
Construction: Shingle roofFactory-built zoning
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioShed(s)Has viewNo fencing

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveSolid surface counters
Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 three-quarter bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Ceiling fan(s)
Interior features: Breakfast barCeiling fansVaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsWindow coveringsUnfurnished
Laundry & utility: Inside laundryElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $109,900 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $109,900 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-21

status $109,900 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-17

status $109,900 Pending 120 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $109,900 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $109,900 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $109,900 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $109,900 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $109,900 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $109,900 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $109,900 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $109,900 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $109,900 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $109,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $109,900 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $109,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $109,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $109,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $109,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $109,900 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $109,900 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $109,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $109,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $109,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $109,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $109,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $109,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $109,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $109,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $109,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $109,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $109,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $109,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $109,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $109,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $109,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $109,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $109,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $109,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $109,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $109,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $109,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-29

pricedays on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $115,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $115,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $115,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $115,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $115,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $115,900 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $12,421
− Mortgage interest: −$6,156
− Property taxes: −$1,648
− Insurance: −$550
− Repairs & maintenance: −$994
− Management: −$994
− Depreciation: −$3,197
Taxable loss: −$1,118

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
After-tax cash flow: $967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,500–$16,500 screening

This well-maintained, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a desirable 55+ community offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Repairs flagged

Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
Minor Bathroom vanity — Needs cleaning

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both Replace worn bathroom vanity — New vanity enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cerbat Elementary F AZ #963/1,109 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Kingman Middle School F AZ #180/218 Nat'l #13,186/14,009 High Kingman High School F AZ #364/381 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
NCES district ID: 0400295
Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
Median HH income: $36,760
Composite: 17.87/100
National rank: #9002
State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
County: Mohave County · 209,184 people
Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
Population (ZIP): 30,365
Household income: $50,852
Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 209,184 people
By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
Current HPI: 280.1884
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	2	$13B
#417 ON Semiconductor Scottsdale $7.1B #467 Resideo Technologies Scottsdale $6.1B
Mining / Metals	1	$23B
#174 Freeport-McMoRan Phoenix $23.4B
Environmental Services	1	$16B
#209 Republic Services Phoenix $15.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$14B
#471 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Scottsdale $14.0B
Technology Distribution	1	$9B
#363 Insight Enterprises Chandler $9.4B
Homebuilding	1	$8B
#424 Taylor Morrison Scottsdale $7.7B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-06-10 Relisted — WARDEX
2026-06-10 Pending — WARDEX
2026-05-19 Listed $115,900 WARDEX
2026-05-12 Relisted — WARDEX
2026-02-27 Price Changed $122,000 WARDEX
2026-02-12 Price Changed $125,000 WARDEX
2026-01-24 Price Changed $129,000 WARDEX
2025-08-19 Price Changed $132,000 WARDEX
2025-07-20 Price Changed $135,500 WARDEX
2025-06-24 Listed $139,900 WARDEX

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…