4324 Falls Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$129,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $213k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-Very nice home in Hope Mills. Great room, Dining room combo. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The Master bedroom has a walk-in closet. Deck on side of the home. Nice view of the running creek outback.

Key facts

• Rear yard slopes
• Built 1993
• Listed 147 days

Tags

• INTERIOR COSMETIC UPDATES
• REAR YARD SLOPES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Factory-built fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer (included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rockfish Elementary (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #750 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 696 students, 98% FRL); Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,476
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4403 Bishamon St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+8%)	3mo	$220,000	$159	70
5982 Spinner Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+3%)	4mo	$199,000	$150	70
4322 Bridge St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,108 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$185	69
5909 Spinner Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (+2%)	2mo	$214,000	$163	68
4405 Haskell Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-6%)	3mo	$220,000	$183	66
5574 Heather St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-10%)	10mo	$175,000	$152	66
4327 Falls Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	10mo	$245,000	$166	66
4317 Buckhurst Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	4mo	$251,000	$176	63
5307 Blanchette St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-1%)	5mo	$233,000	$183	61
4349 Bishamon St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+14%)	10mo	$230,000	$157	56
4441 Bishamon St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,111 (-14%)	0mo	$230,000	$207	56
5929 Spinner Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,447 (+12%)	6mo	$173,000	$120	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,754
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $25,524
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3766 Colonial Cv Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1475	$1,445	$0.98	13d	1	0.36mi
4240 High Stakes Cir Parkton, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,625	$1.62	13d	9	0.55mi
3636 Metric Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	13d	1	0.77mi
3541 Rittenour Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,825	$1.18	13d	1	0.93mi
5959 Rehoboth Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1667	$1,795	$1.08	13d	1	0.93mi
3506 Shipstone Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,380	$1.08	13d	3	1.00mi
5536 Gilcrest Sands Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	23d	1	1.04mi
5715 Walkabout Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,675	$1.47	23d	1	1.09mi
3332 Kenmont Ln Unit E Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,150	$1.05	23d	1	1.35mi
3916 Middle St Hope Mills, NC	2.0	1.0	905	$1,115	$1.23	13d	1	1.35mi
3462 Marty Cir Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,250	$1.12	23d	1	1.37mi
3511 Birchfield Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1270	$1,685	$1.33	13d	5	1.37mi
1514 Aristo Pl Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	13d	1	1.42mi
5660 Bauer St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,999 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,999 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,999 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,999 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    status Active
17. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-16
    status Active
19. 2026-03-16
    price $129,999
20. 2025-11-03
    listed $164,999 Active
21. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $130,000
22. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus $129,511 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    -Very nice home in Hope Mills. Great room, Dining room combo. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The Master bedroom has a walk-in closet. Deck on side of the home. Nice view of the running creek outback.

23. 2021-04-20
    listed $128,900 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    -Very nice home in Hope Mills. Great room, Dining room combo. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The Master bedroom has a walk-in closet. Deck on side of the home. Nice view of the running creek outback.

24. 2007-10-02
    soldstatus $122,500
25. 1993-12-29
    soldstatus $75,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $2,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hope Mills, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+72.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $129,999 LPRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $164,999 LPRMLS
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-24 Sold (MLS) $129,511 LPRMLS
• 2021-04-20 Listed $128,900 LPRMLS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +33.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.