85 Maitland Circle Rd · Welch, WV 24801

$42,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,252 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1977 ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Modular home on permanent foundation. 2 add-ons have been built on - there is an enclosed front porch area and enclosed rear porch. Newer heat pump (2024) along with ductwork and newer roof. Gas heat for backup on the HP. Brick fireplace in the living room along with gas heater. The 3rd bedroom is now being used as the dining room. Garage has separate electrical box

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Newer roof
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• NEWER HEAT PUMP
• NEWER ROOF
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior storage structure

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heat pump heating; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Porch; Storm door(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#126 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcdowell County Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #55 of 55 in WV (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in McDowell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McDowell County population projected at -48% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.54%
• DSCR: 3.87
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $9,095
• Equity at exit: $8,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $28,224
• Equity at exit: $8,378

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24801

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $907

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $220	+0% $206	+5% $191	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $160	+0% $206	+5% $252	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $217	base $206	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $42,000
19. 2026-01-23
    listed $47,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$5,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $2,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $1,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcdowell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400810
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $23,725
• Composite: 16.18/100
• National rank: #9229
• State rank: #55 of 55 in WV

Livability — Welch

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #13064

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,107
• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (McDowell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,405 people
• By 2030: 13,475 · -12.5%
• By 2040: 10,266 · -33.4%
• By 2050: 7,970 · -48.3%
• By 2075: 5,023 · -67.4%
• By 2100: 3,714 · -75.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · McDowell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -68.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+30.1 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Current HPI: 88.0247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $42,000 MTCBOR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $47,000 MTCBOR