437 Maple Dr · Callender Lake, TX 75778

$121,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 309 Days on market

Built 2013 0.53 ac lot $65/sqft · 69% below area $49/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• COMMUNITY PARK
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,228
• List price: $121,900
• Delta: -68.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 E Cedar Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-4%)	20mo	$159,900	$89	47
1185 Hickory Hills Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,664 (-11%)	21mo	$140,000	$84	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $31,901
• Equity at exit: $66,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $92,428
• Equity at exit: $111,601

Cash invested: $34,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$639
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,961/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $121,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,475
• Closing costs: $3,657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $121,900 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,900 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,900 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,900 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,900 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,900 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $121,900 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $121,900 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,900 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,900 Active 298 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,900 Active 297 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,900 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,900 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,900 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $121,900 Active 289 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $121,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, a homestead, or an investment, this property delivers endless possibilities. Move-in ready and thoughtfully planned, this home is a strong option for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and a well-balanced indoor-outdoor living experience. This 1872 SF home has 4 bedroom & 2 bath that is spacious with large rooms & storage throughout. Large shaded lot in a gated community in Calendar Lake. This home is completely remodeled with new appliances & new vinyl flooring.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $121,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, a homestead, or an investment, this property delivers endless possibilities. Move-in ready and thoughtfully planned, this home is a strong option for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and a well-balanced indoor-outdoor living experience. This 1872 SF home has 4 bedroom & 2 bath that is spacious with large rooms & storage throughout. Large shaded lot in a gated community in Calendar Lake. This home is completely remodeled with new appliances & new vinyl flooring.

18. 2026-04-01
    status Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, a homestead, or an investment, this property delivers endless possibilities. Move-in ready and thoughtfully planned, this home is a strong option for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and a well-balanced indoor-outdoor living experience. This 1872 SF home has 4 bedroom & 2 bath that is spacious with large rooms & storage throughout. Large shaded lot in a gated community in Calendar Lake. This home is completely remodeled with new appliances & new vinyl flooring.

19. 2026-04-01
    listed $129,900 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, a homestead, or an investment, this property delivers endless possibilities. Move-in ready and thoughtfully planned, this home is a strong option for buyers seeking comfort, efficiency, and a well-balanced indoor-outdoor living experience. This 1872 SF home has 4 bedroom & 2 bath that is spacious with large rooms & storage throughout. Large shaded lot in a gated community in Calendar Lake. This home is completely remodeled with new appliances & new vinyl flooring.

20. 2026-03-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

21. 2026-03-02
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

22. 2026-01-13
    price $129,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

23. 2026-01-13
    status Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

24. 2026-01-12
    price $129,900
25. 2025-12-16
    status Active
26. 2025-12-10
    historical 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

27. 2025-10-19
    price $154,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

28. 2025-06-10
    listed $159,900 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

29. 2025-06-10
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Large shaded lots in a gated community close to Callendar Lake. This home has a completely remodeled kitchen with new appliances. The kitchen also has new vinyl flooring. Four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Community offers a park, pool and a boat launch.

30. 2003-02-24
    soldstatus
31. 1999-06-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,961 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,961 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,961
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$3,546
• Taxable loss: −$646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Callender Lake

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1447
• US rank: #24766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callender Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $121,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $121,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-02 Pending — HCBOR
• 2026-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $129,900 HCBOR
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $154,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $159,900 HCBOR
• 2025-06-10 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2003-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,961 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.