4835 N Bailey Ave · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$239,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1976 5,297 sqft lot $180/sqft · 16% below area Est $284k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING 3 BEDROOM, 1.5 BATH COLONIAL HOME. . GENEROUS SIZE BEDROOMS WHICH INCLUDES A DEDICATED BEDROOM WITH BUILT-IN DESK AREA- PERFECT FOR TODAYS WORK FROM HOME LIFESTYLE. KITCHEN IS EQUIPPED WITH VINYL PLANK FLOORING, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS, ESSENTIAL APPLICANCES, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR AND DISHWASHER. FULL BATH WITH CERAMIC TILE AND BLUETOOTH COMPATIBLE SHOWER. ENJOY COZY EVENINGS IN THE LIVING ROOM WITH A WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE AND FORMAL DINING ROOM. OUTSIDE HAS A TWO-PLUS CAR GARAGE WITH A LOFT FOR EXTRA STORAGE. THE BASEMENT FEATURES GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS AND A WORKBENCH AREA FOR YOUR DIY PROJECTS. WASHER AND DRYER 2020 INCLUDED. UPGRADES INCLUDE WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM INSTALLED 2024 AND A NEW SUMP PUMP 2026. WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING CENTERS. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY APRIL 25TH 1-3PM. OFFERS TO BE PRESENTED SUNDAY, MAY 3RD 1PM. MORE PHOTOS TO BE ADDED TOMORROW

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Two-plus car garage
• Built-in desk area

Tags

• DEDICATED BEDROOM
• BUILT-IN DESK AREA
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• TWO-PLUS CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $239k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $219,054 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,365
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 Woodcrest Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+4%)	5mo	$246,000	$178	89
4727 N Bailey Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$280,000	$194	74
747 Sweet Home Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+2%)	1mo	$332,150	$245	74
39 Manser Dr	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,209 (-9%)	0mo	$248,515	$206	64
41 Rochelle Park	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,416 (+6%)	2mo	$264,900	$187	63
52 Calvin Ct S	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,332 (+0%)	1mo	$325,000	$244	62
362 Meyer Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,247 (-6%)	3mo	$208,000	$167	57
1257 Brighton Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-5%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	56
1283 Brighton Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-8%)	1mo	$230,000	$188	55
231 Blackstone Blvd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-10%)	4mo	$235,000	$196	53
119 Treadwell Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,209 (-9%)	5mo	$170,000	$141	50
13 Wisteria Ave	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	5mo	$200,000	$139	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,818
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $32,118
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,293/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,165

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	0.02mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	0.14mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	3d	1	0.69mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	15d	1	0.69mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	43d	1	0.92mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	1d	2	0.95mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	1d	1	1.07mi
4585 Chestnut Ridge Rd #4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	23d	1	1.17mi
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	1d	1	1.21mi
954 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,700	$1.09	3d	1	1.24mi
1410 Deer Lakes Dr Amherst, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	2d	5	1.26mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	23d	1	1.32mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	43d	1	1.45mi
1525 Amherst Manor Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	1d	5	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING 3 BEDROOM, 1.5 BATH COLONIAL HOME. . GENEROUS SIZE BEDROOMS WHICH INCLUDES A DEDICATED BEDROOM WITH BUILT-IN DESK AREA- PERFECT FOR TODAYS WORK FROM HOME LIFESTYLE. KITCHEN IS EQUIPPED WITH VINYL PLANK FLOORING, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS, ESSENTIAL APPLICANCES, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR AND DISHWASHER. FULL BATH WITH CERAMIC TILE AND BLUETOOTH COMPATIBLE SHOWER. ENJOY COZY EVENINGS IN THE LIVING ROOM WITH A WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE AND FORMAL DINING ROOM. OUTSIDE HAS A TWO-PLUS CAR GARAGE WITH A LOFT FOR EXTRA STORAGE. THE BASEMENT FEATURES GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS AND A WORKBENCH AREA FOR YOUR DIY PROJECTS. WASHER AND DRYER 2020 INCLUDED. UPGRADES INCLUDE WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM INSTALLED 2024 AND A NEW SUMP PUMP 2026. WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING CENTERS. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY APRIL 25TH 1-3PM. OFFERS TO BE PRESENTED SUNDAY, MAY 3RD 1PM. MORE PHOTOS TO BE ADDED TOMORROW

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $239,000 Active 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING 3 BEDROOM, 1.5 BATH COLONIAL HOME. . GENEROUS SIZE BEDROOMS WHICH INCLUDES A DEDICATED BEDROOM WITH BUILT-IN DESK AREA- PERFECT FOR TODAYS WORK FROM HOME LIFESTYLE. KITCHEN IS EQUIPPED WITH VINYL PLANK FLOORING, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS, ESSENTIAL APPLICANCES, STOVE, REFRIGERATOR AND DISHWASHER. FULL BATH WITH CERAMIC TILE AND BLUETOOTH COMPATIBLE SHOWER. ENJOY COZY EVENINGS IN THE LIVING ROOM WITH A WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE AND FORMAL DINING ROOM. OUTSIDE HAS A TWO-PLUS CAR GARAGE WITH A LOFT FOR EXTRA STORAGE. THE BASEMENT FEATURES GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS AND A WORKBENCH AREA FOR YOUR DIY PROJECTS. WASHER AND DRYER 2020 INCLUDED. UPGRADES INCLUDE WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM INSTALLED 2024 AND A NEW SUMP PUMP 2026. WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING CENTERS. OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY APRIL 25TH 1-3PM. OFFERS TO BE PRESENTED SUNDAY, MAY 3RD 1PM. MORE PHOTOS TO BE ADDED TOMORROW

3. 2019-07-09
   soldstatus $157,250 Closed Sale or Rented 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Welcome to 4835 N. Bailey Ave. This 2 Story colonial comes with a full front porch and oversized 2 car garage with ample storage. Current owner has updated and meticulously maintained this home. .. Move in Ready! Many of the updates to include but not limited to are: updated Kitchen with Quartz Countertops and Cabinets, Breakfast Bar, updated Full Bath and Half Bath, New Vinyl Plank Flooring, Carpeting, HWT 2017, Roof and Garage Roof 2015, Windows 2017 the list goes on and on!!! Close proximity to grocery stores, shops and restaurants! Truly a must see! Open House Saturday, April 13th from 12-3PM! All offers, if any will be reviewed Tuesday, April 16th at 6PM!

4. 2019-07-09
   soldstatus $157,250

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Welcome to 4835 N. Bailey Ave. This 2 Story colonial comes with a full front porch and oversized 2 car garage with ample storage. Current owner has updated and meticulously maintained this home. .. Move in Ready! Many of the updates to include but not limited to are: updated Kitchen with Quartz Countertops and Cabinets, Breakfast Bar, updated Full Bath and Half Bath, New Vinyl Plank Flooring, Carpeting, HWT 2017, Roof and Garage Roof 2015, Windows 2017 the list goes on and on!!! Close proximity to grocery stores, shops and restaurants! Truly a must see! Open House Saturday, April 13th from 12-3PM! All offers, if any will be reviewed Tuesday, April 16th at 6PM!

5. 2019-05-07
   status Pending Sale 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Welcome to 4835 N. Bailey Ave. This 2 Story colonial comes with a full front porch and oversized 2 car garage with ample storage. Current owner has updated and meticulously maintained this home. .. Move in Ready! Many of the updates to include but not limited to are: updated Kitchen with Quartz Countertops and Cabinets, Breakfast Bar, updated Full Bath and Half Bath, New Vinyl Plank Flooring, Carpeting, HWT 2017, Roof and Garage Roof 2015, Windows 2017 the list goes on and on!!! Close proximity to grocery stores, shops and restaurants! Truly a must see! Open House Saturday, April 13th from 12-3PM! All offers, if any will be reviewed Tuesday, April 16th at 6PM!

6. 2019-04-17
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Welcome to 4835 N. Bailey Ave. This 2 Story colonial comes with a full front porch and oversized 2 car garage with ample storage. Current owner has updated and meticulously maintained this home. .. Move in Ready! Many of the updates to include but not limited to are: updated Kitchen with Quartz Countertops and Cabinets, Breakfast Bar, updated Full Bath and Half Bath, New Vinyl Plank Flooring, Carpeting, HWT 2017, Roof and Garage Roof 2015, Windows 2017 the list goes on and on!!! Close proximity to grocery stores, shops and restaurants! Truly a must see! Open House Saturday, April 13th from 12-3PM! All offers, if any will be reviewed Tuesday, April 16th at 6PM!

7. 2019-04-10
   listed $159,900 Active 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Welcome to 4835 N. Bailey Ave. This 2 Story colonial comes with a full front porch and oversized 2 car garage with ample storage. Current owner has updated and meticulously maintained this home. .. Move in Ready! Many of the updates to include but not limited to are: updated Kitchen with Quartz Countertops and Cabinets, Breakfast Bar, updated Full Bath and Half Bath, New Vinyl Plank Flooring, Carpeting, HWT 2017, Roof and Garage Roof 2015, Windows 2017 the list goes on and on!!! Close proximity to grocery stores, shops and restaurants! Truly a must see! Open House Saturday, April 13th from 12-3PM! All offers, if any will be reviewed Tuesday, April 16th at 6PM!

8. 2015-12-15
   soldstatus $91,670 Closed Sale or Rented
9. 2015-12-07
   soldstatus $94,000
10. 2015-10-14
    status Pending Sale
11. 2015-09-18
    price $99,900
12. 2015-07-16
    price $111,900
13. 2015-06-04
    price $117,900
14. 2015-05-13
    listed $123,900 Active
15. 2008-02-08
    soldstatus $88,500
16. 1998-06-19
    soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,293
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $1,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+189.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $239,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $157,250 Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) $157,250 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-10 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-15 Sold (MLS) $91,670 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-09-18 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-16 Price Changed $111,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-04 Price Changed $117,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $123,900 WNYREIS
• 2008-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 1998-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,293 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.