901 Shagos Dr · Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$449,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,379 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2007 8,003 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath, 2-car garage custom home, tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in a highly desirable non-HOA area of Apollo Beach. A paver walkway, palm tree, and attractive landscaping lead from the driveway to the elevated front entry, creating inviting curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Upon entering, you’re greeted by neutral tile flooring that flows throughout most of the first floor, enhancing the home’s bright and cohesive feel. The thoughtfully designed split floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with the primary bedroom with en-suite bath, and a second bedroom conveniently located on the first floor, along with a second full bath. The kitchen is well-appointed with stainless steel appliances and a convenient island, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find the third and fourth bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft area—perfect for guests, teens, or a flexible bonus space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the home features a Florida room that opens to a 10x12 covered patio and an expansive 15’ x 38’ screened lanai, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The primary bedroom features sliders leading directly to the covered patio. The fully fenced backyard provides ample space for pets, play, and relaxation. Major updates include a tile roof replaced in 2019 and an A/C replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. With generous living spaces, a functional layout, and convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, this home offers comfort, versatility, and room to grow. Enjoy nearby attractions such as Apollo Beach Nature Preserve, the Manatee Viewing Center, Apollo Beach Marina, and other outdoor recreation options. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Split floor plan
• Custom home

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• SCREENED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-665/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $439k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apollo Beach Elementary School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 561 students, 40% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $449k implies a 625% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-74,685
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-62,962
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33572

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,191/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,094

Max offer price $439,205

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $72	+0% $-55	+5% $-183	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-214	+0% $-55	+5% $103	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $59	base $-55	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
777 Gran Kaymen Way Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2447	$4,300	$1.76	26d	1	0.13mi
774 Gran Kaymen Way Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2447	$4,300	$1.76	26d	1	0.14mi
772 Gran Kaymen Way Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2447	$4,300	$1.76	26d	1	0.15mi
769 Kingston Ct Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	4.0	2778	$6,200	$2.23	16d	1	0.19mi
6531 Santiago Ct Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	1988	$4,500	$2.26	0d	1	0.30mi
6316 Lake Sunrise Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	15d	1	0.39mi
6316 Lake Sunrise Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,300	$1.82	26d	1	0.39mi
6501 Manila Palm Way Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,350	$1.42	26d	1	0.46mi
6516 Quiet Pool Ct Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,855	$1.11	26d	1	0.59mi
6305 Cottonwood Ln Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$4,200	$2.57	26d	1	0.63mi
1209 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2245	$3,500	$1.56	1d	1	0.70mi
718 Bunker View Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2304	$2,650	$1.15	22d	1	0.77mi
910 Chipaway Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1791	$5,600	$3.13	26d	1	0.86mi
6418 Margarita Shores Ln Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	3075	$4,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.92mi
6612 Blackfin Way Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2180	$4,599	$2.11	19d	1	0.95mi
352 Laurel Falls Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2190	$2,995	$1.37	26d	1	1.00mi
128 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,700	$1.65	12d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $449,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $475,000 1813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1813 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath, 2-car garage custom home, tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in a highly desirable non-HOA area of Apollo Beach. A paver walkway, palm tree, and attractive landscaping lead from the driveway to the elevated front entry, creating inviting curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Upon entering, you’re greeted by neutral tile flooring that flows throughout most of the first floor, enhancing the home’s bright and cohesive feel. The thoughtfully designed split floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with the primary bedroom with en-suite bath, and a second bedroom conveniently located on the first floor, along with a second full bath. The kitchen is well-appointed with stainless steel appliances and a convenient island, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find the third and fourth bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft area—perfect for guests, teens, or a flexible bonus space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the home features a Florida room that opens to a 10x12 covered patio and an expansive 15’ x 38’ screened lanai, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The primary bedroom features sliders leading directly to the covered patio. The fully fenced backyard provides ample space for pets, play, and relaxation. Major updates include a tile roof replaced in 2019 and an A/C replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. With generous living spaces, a functional layout, and convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, this home offers comfort, versatility, and room to grow. Enjoy nearby attractions such as Apollo Beach Nature Preserve, the Manatee Viewing Center, Apollo Beach Marina, and other outdoor recreation options. Schedule your private tour today!

17. 2026-02-14
    price $499,000 1813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1813 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath, 2-car garage custom home, tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in a highly desirable non-HOA area of Apollo Beach. A paver walkway, palm tree, and attractive landscaping lead from the driveway to the elevated front entry, creating inviting curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Upon entering, you’re greeted by neutral tile flooring that flows throughout most of the first floor, enhancing the home’s bright and cohesive feel. The thoughtfully designed split floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with the primary bedroom with en-suite bath, and a second bedroom conveniently located on the first floor, along with a second full bath. The kitchen is well-appointed with stainless steel appliances and a convenient island, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find the third and fourth bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft area—perfect for guests, teens, or a flexible bonus space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the home features a Florida room that opens to a 10x12 covered patio and an expansive 15’ x 38’ screened lanai, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The primary bedroom features sliders leading directly to the covered patio. The fully fenced backyard provides ample space for pets, play, and relaxation. Major updates include a tile roof replaced in 2019 and an A/C replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. With generous living spaces, a functional layout, and convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, this home offers comfort, versatility, and room to grow. Enjoy nearby attractions such as Apollo Beach Nature Preserve, the Manatee Viewing Center, Apollo Beach Marina, and other outdoor recreation options. Schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-01-24
    listed $525,000 Active 1813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1813 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath, 2-car garage custom home, tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in a highly desirable non-HOA area of Apollo Beach. A paver walkway, palm tree, and attractive landscaping lead from the driveway to the elevated front entry, creating inviting curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Upon entering, you’re greeted by neutral tile flooring that flows throughout most of the first floor, enhancing the home’s bright and cohesive feel. The thoughtfully designed split floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with the primary bedroom with en-suite bath, and a second bedroom conveniently located on the first floor, along with a second full bath. The kitchen is well-appointed with stainless steel appliances and a convenient island, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find the third and fourth bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft area—perfect for guests, teens, or a flexible bonus space. Designed with entertaining in mind, the home features a Florida room that opens to a 10x12 covered patio and an expansive 15’ x 38’ screened lanai, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The primary bedroom features sliders leading directly to the covered patio. The fully fenced backyard provides ample space for pets, play, and relaxation. Major updates include a tile roof replaced in 2019 and an A/C replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. With generous living spaces, a functional layout, and convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities, this home offers comfort, versatility, and room to grow. Enjoy nearby attractions such as Apollo Beach Nature Preserve, the Manatee Viewing Center, Apollo Beach Marina, and other outdoor recreation options. Schedule your private tour today!

19. 2008-02-05
    listed $399,900
20. 2008-02-04
    historical
21. 2008-01-18
    listed $399,900
22. 2004-04-14
    soldstatus $61,900
23. 2002-05-15
    soldstatus $31,000
24. 2002-05-15
    soldstatus $139,000
25. 1991-04-01
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,191 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,727 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,191
• − Insurance: −$7,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,863
• − Management: −$3,863
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$8,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,970
• After-tax cash flow: $1,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,495
• Household income: $122,130
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.97%
• Current HPI: 300.9596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1726.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-05 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-18 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records
• 2002-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,191 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.