13826 Willie Melton Blvd · Kendleton, TX 77451

$149,899

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 517 Days on market

Built 1972 8,681 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MANY UPDATES! 13826 Willie Melton Blvd is a lovely home with three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. This property features fresh interior paint, new carpet, updated bathrooms and new paint on the exterior fascia, siding, and shutters. This property has a nice size yard. Here you will have direct access to US-59. Bates Allen Park is just down the road where you catch a glimpse of the San Bernard River, and there are plenty of nearby amenities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Nice size yard
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW PAINT ON EXTERIOR FASCIA
• NICE SIZE YARD
• DIRECT ACCESS TO US-59

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 517 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 517 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.95%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,693
• List price: $149,899
• Delta: -0.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Branch Cir	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,385 (+6%)	6mo	$202,000	$146	71
13718 Willie Melton Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,167 (-10%)	11mo	$138,000	$118	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $142,307
• Equity at exit: $85,884

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $337,582
• Equity at exit: $149,006

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77451

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $149,899

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13218 HP Johnson St Unit A Kendleton, TX	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,450	$2.53	1d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,899 Active 517 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,899 Active 516 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,899 Active 515 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,899 Active 514 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,899 Active 512 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,899 Active 508 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $149,899 Active 507 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,899 Active 506 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,899 Active 503 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,899 Active 502 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,899 Active 501 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,899 Active 500 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,899 Active 499 DOM
14. 2026-01-20
    price $154,899 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! 13826 Willie Melton Blvd is a lovely home with three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. This property features fresh interior paint, new carpet, updated bathrooms and new paint on the exterior fascia, siding, and shutters. This property has a nice size yard. Here you will have direct access to US-59. Bates Allen Park is just down the road where you catch a glimpse of the San Bernard River, and there are plenty of nearby amenities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

15. 2025-01-17
    listed $164,899 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! 13826 Willie Melton Blvd is a lovely home with three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. This property features fresh interior paint, new carpet, updated bathrooms and new paint on the exterior fascia, siding, and shutters. This property has a nice size yard. Here you will have direct access to US-59. Bates Allen Park is just down the road where you catch a glimpse of the San Bernard River, and there are plenty of nearby amenities. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus Sold 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in the Bernard River Park subdivision. This home is a 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath with garage conversion to create the 4th bedroom, Kitchen with breakfast room, living room. Brick exterior. Come see today.

17. 2024-02-19
    status Pending 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in the Bernard River Park subdivision. This home is a 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath with garage conversion to create the 4th bedroom, Kitchen with breakfast room, living room. Brick exterior. Come see today.

18. 2024-01-29
    listed $78,000 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in the Bernard River Park subdivision. This home is a 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath with garage conversion to create the 4th bedroom, Kitchen with breakfast room, living room. Brick exterior. Come see today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,398 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $18,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,529
• After-tax cash flow: $15,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kendleton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 510

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 47% Two or more races 29%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Current HPI: 153.2946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $154,899 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $164,899 HARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Listed $78,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,398 · -23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.