1299 Palmer Ave #225 · Larchmont, NY 10538

$185,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · Condo · 103 Days on market

Built 1962

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of Larchmont is one of the most well kept and desirable elevator buildings. The unit needs updating. Just steps away from Metro North and town; with restaurants, shops and Turtle Park. There is a short waitlist for on site parking and the building has a on site super and porter, ground level laundry room and offers storage and bike rooms.

Key facts

• Bike rooms
• Elevator buildings
• On site porter

Tags

• ELEVATOR BUILDINGS
• ON SITE SUPER
• ON SITE PORTER
• GROUND LEVEL LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE ROOMS
• BIKE ROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.1% in Larchmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#18 in NY, #366 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Mamaroneck Union Free School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #47 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central School (math 78% / reading 78%, grade A, #239 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 513 students, 14% FRL); Hommocks School (math 65% / reading 79%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 1,258 students, 20% FRL); Mamaroneck High School (math 95% / reading 91%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,660 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.60%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $34,946
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $114,153
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10538

• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $1,019

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1833 Palmer Ave Unit 3K Larchmont, NY	2.0	1.0	875	$2,700	$3.09	43d	1	0.13mi
4 Larchmont Acres Unit 4C Larchmont, NY	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,985	$2.78	24d	1	0.50mi
314 Larchmont Acres Unit 4C Mamaroneck, NY	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,985	$2.78	24d	1	0.54mi
5 Lester Pl Unit 1 Larchmont, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$3,200	$3.76	24d	1	0.58mi
505 Rockland Ave Unit 2 Mamaroneck, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,800	$4.00	43d	1	0.86mi
412 Munro Ave Apt 3F Mamaroneck, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,950	$3.93	43d	1	1.16mi
300 Livingston Ave Unit 3E Mamaroneck, NY	1.0	1.0	946	$3,600	$3.81	43d	1	1.26mi
338 Palmer Ave Unit B Mamaroneck, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,700	$4.11	24d	1	1.30mi
120 Stonelea Pl Apt 3M New Rochelle, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	18d	1	1.36mi
110 Stonelea Pl Unit 3B New Rochelle, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,650	$3.31	43d	1	1.36mi
225 Stanley Ave #313 Mamaroneck, NY	1.0	1.0	825	$3,500	$4.24	24d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-12
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,792
• − Management: −$2,792
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $9,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,368
• After-tax cash flow: $9,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mamaroneck Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618240
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $111,011
• Composite: 71.4/100
• National rank: #228
• State rank: #47 of 590 in NY

Livability — Larchmont

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #366

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,709

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -535.56%
• Current HPI: 325.1393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid