45574 W Tulip Ln · Maricopa, AZ 85139

$369,000

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2005 5,177 sqft lot $134/sqft · 11% below area Est $414k · 11% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for SPACE, this home is it!! Check out this beautiful 6 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home located in Maricopa Meadows. Featuring formal sitting and dining room down stairs as well as a full bedroom with en suite downstairs. This would make an amazing second master bedroom or mother in law suite. This great home also features a loft upstairs and very spacious bedrooms. Lots of space in the back yard too with half already done in pavers and pergola. The other side a blank slate waiting for your new pool or turf! Lots of natural sunlight to love here.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Pavers and pergola
• Loft upstairs

Tags

• FORMAL SITTING AND DINING ROOM
• LOFT UPSTAIRS
• BACK YARD
• PAVERS AND PERGOLA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $369k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,238 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,067
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -10.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45585 W Dirk St	0.08mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,745 (0%)	3mo	$335,000	$122	85
46077 W Dirk St	0.34mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,750 (+0%)	4mo	$406,000	$148	72
45554 W Dutchman Dr	0.37mi	6/3.0	2,904 (+6%)	2mo	$368,000	$127	69
45485 W Morning View Ln	0.30mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,966 (+8%)	1mo	$390,000	$131	63
45539 W Long Way	0.40mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,986 (+9%)	2mo	$440,000	$147	58
45080 W Buckhorn Trl	0.31mi	6/3.0	3,040 (+11%)	11mo	$400,000	$132	57
45638 W Dutchman Dr	0.37mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,954 (+8%)	5mo	$357,000	$121	56
45173 W Sandhill Rd	0.59mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,768 (+1%)	7mo	$365,000	$132	56
17812 N Carmen Ave	0.58mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,613 (-5%)	10mo	$359,000	$137	48
18118 N Smith Dr	0.54mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,965 (+8%)	8mo	$370,000	$125	46
46135 W Dirk St	0.38mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,385 (-13%)	8mo	$350,000	$147	43
45108 W Zion Rd	0.55mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,041 (+11%)	12mo	$420,000	$138	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-78,307
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-113,310
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85139

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,499/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,996

Max offer price $340,545

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45666 W Tucker Rd Maricopa, AZ	5.0	2.5	3256	$2,950	$0.91	10d	1	0.20mi
43558 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	4.0	3508	$2,695	$0.77	23d	1	1.48mi
43531 W Oster Dr Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	2494	$1,900	$0.76	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 664-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $369,000 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    If you are looking for SPACE, this home is it!! Check out this beautiful 6 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home located in Maricopa Meadows. Featuring formal sitting and dining room down stairs as well as a full bedroom with en suite downstairs. This would make an amazing second master bedroom or mother in law suite. This great home also features a loft upstairs and very spacious bedrooms. Lots of space in the back yard too with half already done in pavers and pergola. The other side a blank slate waiting for your new pool or turf! Lots of natural sunlight to love here.

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $374,900 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    If you are looking for SPACE, this home is it!! Check out this beautiful 6 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home located in Maricopa Meadows. Featuring formal sitting and dining room down stairs as well as a full bedroom with en suite downstairs. This would make an amazing second master bedroom or mother in law suite. This great home also features a loft upstairs and very spacious bedrooms. Lots of space in the back yard too with half already done in pavers and pergola. The other side a blank slate waiting for your new pool or turf! Lots of natural sunlight to love here.

18. 2026-04-01
    historical
19. 2026-01-14
    price $374,900
20. 2025-07-25
    price $389,000
21. 2025-05-29
    listed $420,000 Active
22. 2015-06-17
    soldstatus $134,900 Closed
23. 2015-04-17
    status Pending
24. 2015-03-30
    price $134,900
25. 2015-02-24
    listed $144,900 Active
26. 2014-11-17
    historical
27. 2014-10-01
    status Active
28. 2014-08-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
29. 2014-07-18
    price $149,900
30. 2014-07-18
    price $135,000
31. 2014-07-11
    price $140,000
32. 2014-07-01
    listed $145,000 Active
33. 2014-05-02
    historical
34. 2014-04-16
    price $169,900
35. 2014-03-30
    price $172,000
36. 2014-03-14
    price $177,000
37. 2014-02-11
    price $179,000
38. 2014-01-03
    price $179,900
39. 2013-12-17
    price $184,900
40. 2013-12-07
    listed $189,900 Active
41. 2004-03-19
    soldstatus $2,844,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,499 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,499 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$2,499
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$8,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,026
• After-tax cash flow: $93/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,784
• Household income: $86,894
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Native American 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.22%
• Current HPI: 313.8539
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-87.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $369,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $374,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $374,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $389,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $420,000 ARMLS
• 2015-06-17 Sold (MLS) $134,900 ARMLS
• 2015-04-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-03-30 Price Changed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2015-02-24 Listed $144,900 ARMLS
• 2014-11-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-10-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2014-08-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2014-07-18 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2014-07-18 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-11 Price Changed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2014-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-04-16 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2014-03-30 Price Changed $172,000 ARMLS
• 2014-03-14 Price Changed $177,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-11 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-03 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2013-12-17 Price Changed $184,900 ARMLS
• 2013-12-07 Listed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2004-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $2,844,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,499 · +40.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.