25521 N Lincoln Ave #99 · Valle Vista, CA 92544

$79,900

2 bd · 1.75 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 531 Days on market

Built 2022 $102/sqft · 30% above area ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pueblo Sereno, a charming 55+ mobile home park in Hemet, California, offers a brand-new 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an open floor plan and stunning views of the Idyllwild mountains. The park features a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, horseshoe pit, dog park, and a vibrant community center. With space rent at just $540, this home combines modern comfort with an active and scenic lifestyle.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open floor plan
• Relaxing spa

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RELAXING SPA
• HORSESHOE PIT
• DOG PARK
• VIBRANT COMMUNITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.75-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.3% in Valle Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#739 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 531 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 531 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.38%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,510
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 52.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44725 State Highway 74 #103	0.33mi	2/2.0	868 (+11%)	4mo	$73,000	$84	63
44577 Miller Way	0.14mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	18mo	$229,000	$318	62
25863 4th St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	840 (+7%)	10mo	$304,750	$363	51
25147 Wanda Ln	0.67mi	2/1.0	810 (+3%)	16mo	$215,000	$265	47
45055 E Florida Ave #117	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-11%)	2mo	$27,700	$40	40
44725 State Highway 74 #9	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-8%)	22mo	$15,000	$21	39
45055 State Highway 74 #63	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (-11%)	21mo	$26,000	$37	23
45055 Highway 74 #87	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	16mo	$12,000	$18	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,647
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $125,679
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92544

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44075 B St Hemet, CA	3.0	1.0	680	$1,595	$2.35	20d	1	0.34mi
44085 Palm Ave Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	3d	1	0.36mi
44099 D St Hemet, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,195	$2.11	17d	1	0.43mi
43816 C St Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,250	$2.16	24d	1	0.63mi
43611 Florida Ave Unit 10 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.92mi
43601 California 74 Unit 17 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.99mi
45371 Cardiff St Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,950	$3.12	43d	1	1.04mi
43601 E Florida Ave #98 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	24d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Unit 43 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave #98 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	43d	1	1.06mi
43601 E Florida Ave Unit 43 Hemet, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	23d	1	1.06mi
26097 Doverwood Pl Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	1019	$1,849	$1.81	43d	1	1.14mi
25564 Sharp Dr Unit F Hemet, CA	1.0	1.0	832	$1,475	$1.77	43d	1	1.21mi
26123 Anawood Pl Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	991	$1,680	$1.70	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 531 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 530 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 529 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 528 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 526 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 522 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 521 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 520 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 517 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 516 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 515 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 533-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 514 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 513 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $79,900 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Pueblo Sereno, a charming 55+ mobile home park in Hemet, California, offers a brand-new 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an open floor plan and stunning views of the Idyllwild mountains. The park features a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, horseshoe pit, dog park, and a vibrant community center. With space rent at just $540, this home combines modern comfort with an active and scenic lifestyle.

16. 2025-08-12
    price $89,900 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Pueblo Sereno, a charming 55+ mobile home park in Hemet, California, offers a brand-new 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an open floor plan and stunning views of the Idyllwild mountains. The park features a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, horseshoe pit, dog park, and a vibrant community center. With space rent at just $540, this home combines modern comfort with an active and scenic lifestyle.

17. 2025-01-03
    listed $94,900 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Pueblo Sereno, a charming 55+ mobile home park in Hemet, California, offers a brand-new 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an open floor plan and stunning views of the Idyllwild mountains. The park features a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, horseshoe pit, dog park, and a vibrant community center. With space rent at just $540, this home combines modern comfort with an active and scenic lifestyle.

18. 2025-01-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Pueblo Sereno, a charming 55+ mobile home park in Hemet, California, offers a brand-new 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an open floor plan and stunning views of the Idyllwild mountains. The park features a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, horseshoe pit, dog park, and a vibrant community center. With space rent at just $540, this home combines modern comfort with an active and scenic lifestyle.

19. 2024-12-10
    price $98,900
20. 2024-11-12
    price $104,900
21. 2024-05-01
    historical
22. 2024-05-01
    listed $112,900 Active
23. 2024-02-08
    price $112,900
24. 2023-12-07
    price $114,900
25. 2023-09-23
    historical
26. 2023-09-23
    listed $119,000 Active
27. 2023-06-21
    price $119,000
28. 2023-04-26
    price $124,900
29. 2023-03-09
    price $129,900
30. 2023-01-20
    price $134,900
31. 2022-12-14
    price $144,900
32. 2022-10-18
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $9,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,323
• After-tax cash flow: $8,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valle Vista

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #21678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valle Vista, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,751
• Household income: $73,596
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1518.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 40% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.06%
• Current HPI: 391.972
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-46.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $79,900 SDMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $89,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $94,900 SDMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $98,900 SDMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $104,900 SDMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $112,900 SDMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $112,900 SDMLS
• 2023-12-07 Price Changed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listed $119,000 SDMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $119,000 SDMLS
• 2023-04-26 Price Changed $124,900 SDMLS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $129,900 SDMLS
• 2023-01-20 Price Changed $134,900 SDMLS
• 2022-12-14 Price Changed $144,900 SDMLS
• 2022-10-18 Listed $149,900 SDMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2012): $82 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.