1055 Lockhaven Dr N #98 · Keizer, OR 97303

$29,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1977 $26/sqft · 30% below area Est $43k · 30% under ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live life at your pace at Wildwood Villa! Spacious floor plan gives separation while feeling open. Recently replaced, the large living room windows bring in an abundance of natural light. Built in hutch provides ample storage while adding character. Primary offers a large closet and ensuite has step in shower with folding bench for accessibility. Outdoors, you’ll find a gardener’s dream backyard! Complete with multiple raised beds, trellises, and mature landscaping, the yard offers privacy and the potential to truly shine with a little care and vision. The covered porch is cozy and adds extra living space while the attached garage has extra storage. Take walks around Staats Lake, or play a round of golf next door at the McNary Golf Course. Park amenities include a spacious clubhouse with a pool table and kitchen, a swimming pool and laundry facilities. Shopping, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, doctors, and more are all nearby. This affordable home is ready for your personal touches.

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• Multiple raised beds
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM WINDOWS
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• STEP IN SHOWER
• GARDENER'S DREAM BACKYARD
• MULTIPLE RAISED BEDS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.2% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.48%
• DSCR: 7.34
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,638
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -29.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #104	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	14mo	$67,900	$59	88
1055 Lockhaven Dr #90	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,215 (+6%)	16mo	$65,000	$53	77
5355 River Rd N #15	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	1mo	$8,000	$7	72
5026 Briarwood Cir N #36	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-1%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	59
5063 N Briarwood Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	10mo	$127,500	$118	54
5063 Briarwood Cir N #63	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	11mo	$127,500	$118	53
5355 River Rd N #92	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	12mo	$40,000	$32	50
5025 Briarwood Cir N #38	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	21mo	$114,900	$97	48
5355 River Rd N #113	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,022 (-11%)	10mo	$45,400	$44	47
1395 Firview Pl N	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	13mo	$134,900	$104	39
5136 Springfield Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+10%)	18mo	$182,562	$144	34
5135 Nordic Ct N	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	21mo	$116,600	$90	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $59,657
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.54×
• Total profit: $138,434
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $285

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1063 Koala St N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,299	$1.22	4d	3	0.23mi
1102 Orchard Ct N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	955	$1,375	$1.44	44d	1	0.34mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	21d	1	0.50mi
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	23d	1	0.60mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	44d	1	0.63mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	14d	1	0.69mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	2d	2	0.71mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	23d	1	0.75mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	44d	1	0.85mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	14d	1	0.85mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	14d	1	0.85mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	10d	11	0.88mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	44d	1	0.94mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	44d	1	1.00mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	23d	1	1.06mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	14d	3	1.07mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	23d	1	1.07mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.08mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	21d	1	1.10mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.10mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	8d	1	1.15mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.16mi
776 Dearborn Ave NE Keizer, OR	3.0	1.0	1230	$2,300	$1.87	44d	1	1.18mi
892 Foothill Ct NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,575	$1.66	2d	10	1.20mi
491 Marino Dr N Unit 495 Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,350	$1.83	14d	1	1.21mi
6800 Wheatland Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	986	$1,525	$1.55	16d	1	1.32mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.34mi
6700 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,612	$2.00	2d	12	1.37mi
6701 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	2d	4	1.39mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	14d	1	1.40mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	23d	1	1.40mi
1220 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.44mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	23d	1	1.48mi
1236 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.49mi
1144 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $29,900 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Live life at your pace at Wildwood Villa! Spacious floor plan gives separation while feeling open. Recently replaced, the large living room windows bring in an abundance of natural light. Built in hutch provides ample storage while adding character. Primary offers a large closet and ensuite has step in shower with folding bench for accessibility. Outdoors, you’ll find a gardener’s dream backyard! Complete with multiple raised beds, trellises, and mature landscaping, the yard offers privacy and the potential to truly shine with a little care and vision. The covered porch is cozy and adds extra living space while the attached garage has extra storage. Take walks around Staats Lake, or play a round of golf next door at the McNary Golf Course. Park amenities include a spacious clubhouse with a pool table and kitchen, a swimming pool and laundry facilities. Shopping, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, doctors, and more are all nearby. This affordable home is ready for your personal touches.

16. 2026-05-05
    price $29,900 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Live life at your pace at Wildwood Villa! Spacious floor plan gives separation while feeling open. Recently replaced, the large living room windows bring in an abundance of natural light. Built in hutch provides ample storage while adding character. Primary offers a large closet and ensuite has step in shower with folding bench for accessibility. Outdoors, you’ll find a gardener’s dream backyard! Complete with multiple raised beds, trellises, and mature landscaping, the yard offers privacy and the potential to truly shine with a little care and vision. The covered porch is cozy and adds extra living space while the attached garage has extra storage. Take walks around Staats Lake, or play a round of golf next door at the McNary Golf Course. Park amenities include a spacious clubhouse with a pool table and kitchen, a swimming pool and laundry facilities. Shopping, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, doctors, and more are all nearby. This affordable home is ready for your personal touches.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $35,000 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Live life at your pace at Wildwood Villa! Spacious floor plan gives separation while feeling open. Recently replaced, the large living room windows bring in an abundance of natural light. Built in hutch provides ample storage while adding character. Primary offers a large closet and ensuite has step in shower with folding bench for accessibility. Outdoors, you’ll find a gardener’s dream backyard! Complete with multiple raised beds, trellises, and mature landscaping, the yard offers privacy and the potential to truly shine with a little care and vision. The covered porch is cozy and adds extra living space while the attached garage has extra storage. Take walks around Staats Lake, or play a round of golf next door at the McNary Golf Course. Park amenities include a spacious clubhouse with a pool table and kitchen, a swimming pool and laundry facilities. Shopping, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, doctors, and more are all nearby. This affordable home is ready for your personal touches.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $35,000 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Live life at your pace at Wildwood Villa! Spacious floor plan gives separation while feeling open. Recently replaced, the large living room windows bring in an abundance of natural light. Built in hutch provides ample storage while adding character. Primary offers a large closet and ensuite has step in shower with folding bench for accessibility. Outdoors, you’ll find a gardener’s dream backyard! Complete with multiple raised beds, trellises, and mature landscaping, the yard offers privacy and the potential to truly shine with a little care and vision. The covered porch is cozy and adds extra living space while the attached garage has extra storage. Take walks around Staats Lake, or play a round of golf next door at the McNary Golf Course. Park amenities include a spacious clubhouse with a pool table and kitchen, a swimming pool and laundry facilities. Shopping, restaurants, theaters, hospitals, doctors, and more are all nearby. This affordable home is ready for your personal touches.

19. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $27,900 Sold
20. 2018-07-27
    historical Active under Contract
21. 2018-06-21
    status Active
22. 2018-06-21
    historical Active under Contract
23. 2018-06-21
    status Active
24. 2018-05-23
    historical Active under Contract
25. 2018-05-18
    price $34,900
26. 2018-05-01
    price $37,500
27. 2018-03-30
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $12,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,926
• After-tax cash flow: $9,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $29,900 WVMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $29,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $35,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $27,900 WVMLS
• 2018-07-27 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2018-06-21 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2018-06-21 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2018-06-21 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2018-05-23 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2018-05-18 Price Changed $34,900 WVMLS
• 2018-05-01 Price Changed $37,500 WVMLS
• 2018-03-30 Listed $39,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.