909 Hillsdale St · Lyndonville, NY 14571

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1958 5,227 sqft lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Ready to get away from it all this summer? Then this is it! Your own cottages just steps away from Lake Ontario. Includes lake front park and beach access with a $50 HOA! Tons of possibilities with this seasonal cottage in this quiet community by the lake! Property is in need of renovation, but a little sweat equity will go a long way! Being sold as-is, contents included. Just under an hour away from Rochester, around an hour and fifteen minute drive to Buffalo.

Key facts

• Lake front park
• Beach access
• Quiet community

Tags

• LAKE FRONT PARK
• BEACH ACCESS
• QUIET COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $50

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (previously built)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Irregular lot; Beach access to Lake Ontario; Lakefront access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($999 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#993 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lyndonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #260 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.89%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $49,718
• Equity at exit: $36,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.13×
• Total profit: $124,616
• Equity at exit: $77,711

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14571

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,459/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $50,000 Active
16. 2013-10-25
    soldstatus $28,313

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,459 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,459 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,459
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyndonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617970
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $52,015
• Composite: 49.98/100
• National rank: #1927
• State rank: #260 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyndonville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #993
• US rank: #19414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,001

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.84%
• Current HPI: 316.5754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $50,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $28,313 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,459 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.